Is the World Ordered by Superhuman Intelligence? A Bostrom Analysis

Defining Superhuman Intelligence

Before determining whether the world at present is the result of some sort of superhuman intelligent ordering, it is important to clarify what is meant by the concept of superhuman intelligence. Specifically, it is vital to establish that such an intelligence does not refer to the ecclesiastical or to theology in any way. Although virtually any layman might consider superhuman intelligence to be a synonym for God, that entity is generally conceived as a force — an eternal, omniscient being beyond human comprehension. The term intelligence, however, distinctly pertains to organisms and may be used to refer to other species of creatures (such as chimpanzees, aliens, and the like). Once supernatural factors are set aside, it becomes fairly clear that there is a plethora of evidence indicating that the contemporary world is most assuredly not the result of superhuman intelligent ordering. Moreover, several works by some of the most noted thinkers on this subject readily corroborate this conclusion.

One of the most prominent contemporary thinkers on this subject is Nick Bostrom, a Swedish philosopher. There are several facets of Bostrom's work that support the notion that a superhuman intelligence is not responsible for the ordering of the world. Ironically, however, Bostrom does not rule out the possibility that such an intelligence could come into existence and come to mold the planet to its liking. The following quotation readily confirms this: "This paper outlines the case for believing that we will have superhuman artificial intelligence within the first third of the next century" (Bostrom, 1998). What is particularly important about this quotation is that Bostrom is referring to events that will take place in the future. Although this work was written at the end of the last millennium, it was updated the following decade, and the author was still writing about things that had yet to occur. As such, they had not already taken place, which indicates that at the time of writing, superhuman intelligence was not ordering or structuring the world — although the author believed that at some conceivable point in the future it could and would.

Bostrom's Timeline: Superintelligence as a Future Event

There is another critical point implied by this evidence. Bostrom believed that some form of superintelligence could one day exert its influence over the world at large. He also believed it had not happened yet. However, there is a line of succession in the ideas and advancements that take place throughout history — one arrives at a conclusion only after accumulating evidence that is strongly suggestive of it. If Bostrom believed in the late 1990s that superintelligence was forthcoming, this means it was also forthcoming during all of the years that preceded his prediction. This rationale is difficult to counter when examined through the lens of Bostrom's own argument. If he believed superintelligence had yet to manifest, it had not already done so. Thus, the world in all of the years prior to his initial 1998 assertion — which he re-asserted at the end of the following decade — was bereft of the influence of superhuman intelligent ordering.

It is important to recognize that there is an inherent connection between events that hinges upon temporality. What is taking place now is related to that which was planned and set in motion in previous years. One could pose the counterargument that at some point a superintelligence could suddenly have emerged and caused things to be the way they are. Such a supposition, however, does not account for the nature of time and causal relationships. An illustrative example can be found by considering the presidency of the United States. If one were to argue that a superhuman intelligence had suddenly asserted itself in the years since Bostrom declared such an intelligence was still forthcoming, one would have to reckon with the fact that many of the events and occurrences taking place are the natural results of a period in which no superintelligence existed. A sitting president, for example, is elected and governs through processes rooted in prior social, political, and institutional conditions — not because of any external superintelligent machinations, but because of occurrences that took place before any such intelligence existed. There are myriad other examples that demonstrate this fundamental point.

Causal Order and the Absence of Superintelligence

It is possible that a superhuman intelligence could exist at some near-future moment after Bostrom declared none was yet present. However, the present ordering and structuring of the world would not be significantly influenced by it, because the world is obviously still significantly shaped by the period in which Bostrom affirmed such a power was still forthcoming.

One must recognize the great deal of importance that Bostrom ascribes to nature and its influence on temporal elements as related to the question of whether some form of intelligence beyond that of humans could govern the world today. To appreciate this fully, the prudent reader should look beyond the philosopher's writings on superintelligence specifically and consider his notions related to human enhancement. Bostrom defines human enhancement as "self-improvement and human perfectibility through ethical application of science" (Sutherland, 2006). Self-improvement and human perfectibility largely occur in a linear fashion. Mankind is therefore still progressing toward the kind of intelligence that Bostrom believes will one day be able to structure the world to its liking. Furthermore, as late as 2012 the author believed that superhuman intelligence was still in the process of being developed (Bostrom, 2012, p. 1). It is therefore irrational to believe that this form of intelligence had suddenly usurped control over the earth in less than two years — especially since many of the dominant socio-economic powers that were asserting their influence before that period were still doing so. There is even evidence suggesting that the presence of a superintelligence might be less than beneficent (Danaher, 2012).

The reason that the development of human perfection along a linear timeline is so important to understanding Bostrom's ideas is that the author believes this creation would represent the summation of mankind's industrial and technological achievements. The following quotation demonstrates this clearly:

Conclusion

In summary, it is extremely unlikely that the world as it is currently known is under the influence of any superseding form of intelligence. The most optimistic of the philosophers discussed here — Bostrom — believes that mankind's capacity to create such an intelligence is still in the making. Specifically, he holds that the process by which human intelligence and progress unfolds is still unfolding, and that once it reaches the point of producing superintelligence, it will be such a tremendous and impactful occurrence that there will be no need to question or doubt the presence of such an intelligence. Other thinkers, such as the physicist Heisenberg, see an inherent limitation in humanity's ability to perceive the world, let alone to create something capable of accurately controlling it. From the perspectives of each of these esteemed thinkers, one can safely conclude that the world is not under the ordering of any superhuman intelligence at this time.