Climate Change as a Global Security and Migration Threat

Introduction: Climate Change as a Security Issue

Climate change presents a clear threat to global security, potentially prompting waves of forced migration that destabilize regions and undermine national sovereignty. Moreover, climate change has a direct and immediate impact on global food supplies, leading to dramatic humanitarian outcomes. The consequences of climate change extend beyond food security concerns into the broader realms of public health, including the spread of communicable diseases. Although most climate change research is based on modeling systems, the lessons learned from current trends in population migration and public health issues can provide insight into both the causes of and solutions to the problems that climate change presents to domestic and global security.

Food, Water, and Geopolitical Instability

Gemenne, Barnett, Adger, and Dabelko (2014) find that climate change presents "risks of conflict, national security concerns, critical national infrastructure, geo-political rivalries and threats to human security" (p. 1). Risks of conflict related to climate change include those linked to water or food shortages. Likewise, Wheeler and von Braun (2013) suggest "it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition" (p. 508).

Water security can also become a source of contention between neighboring nations, leading to regional political instability as water-rich nations vie to protect their borders from an influx of migrants or, alternatively, from threats to domestic security. Both food and water shortages can therefore exacerbate existing geopolitical rivalries, such as those between India and China currently evident in their mutual border regions with Bhutan (Gemenne, Barnett, Adger & Dabelko, 2014). As the critical national infrastructures of nations include provisions for basic human needs like food and water, climate change is easily one of the most pressing global security issues.

Military Strategy and the Arctic

Far beyond the environmental ethics perspective that usually frames issues related to climate change, the implications of climate change include significant ramifications for military strategies and foreign policy. "A changing climate will affect how and where military forces operate," with one prime example relevant to North America being the opening of Arctic waters (Goldstein, 2016, p. 95). The opening of previously impassable Arctic maritime passages bodes particularly well for Russia, according to Goldstein (2016), because Russia currently possesses the largest fleet of heavy icebreakers. Canada, Finland, and Sweden likewise play a major role as primary stakeholders in military activity in the Arctic (Goldstein, 2016).

Proliferation is a distinct possibility as nations respond to perceived threats. Moreover, melting Arctic ice leading to rises in sea level impacts naval bases around the world. The consequences could be astounding not just for civilian populations in coastal areas but also for strategic military operations.