Statistical Analysis of American Electorate

Statistical Analysis of American Electorate

The process of designing an empirical research project that examines the relationship between party identification and the effect of news media on vote choice should begin with an assessment of the variables to be tested. In light of the information provided in the monograph, which observes that "the stronger a person's party identification, the less effect that news media has on the person's vote choice," it would seem that the asserted negative correlation between strength of party affiliation and the effect of news media requires further confirmative testing. The increased polarization of the American electorate must be accounted for, because as the recently concluded presidential election of 2012 and the political gridlock to follow has surely demonstrated, the lack of impact from news media on voter choice may simply be the result of preexisting reinforcement. Simply put, as the rise of ideologically inclined "news" networks like FOX News and MSNBC has come to dominate the distribution of political media, voters may no longer view the news as a source of information in deciding the party with which they choose to identify, but as a means of validating a choice that has already been made. This purpose of this research project is to examine the link between long-term viewership of news media through either FOX News, which typically espouses a conservative slant in its political coverage, and MSNBC, which pursues a liberal agenda in its programming, and the documented lack of influence from news media on voter choice.

In this case, the independent variable of party identification will be tested against dual dependent variables; the relative consumption of political content from ideological media outlets, and the lack of impact that this consumption exerts on voter impact. The theory that long-term viewership of either FOX News or MSNBC represents a validation of one's predetermined political philosophy and party affiliation will be tested by analyzing data on news-gathering habits and voting patterns, obtained from the comprehensive array of surveys contained within the 2008 and 2010 American National Election Studies. In addition to this analysis, the findings of the Pew Research Center's 2012 Values Survey, which observed that party affiliation ranks as the most influential demographic factor when determining value differentiation between individual voters, and that this political polarization has intensified during the last four election cycles. The fact that the most divisive cable news outlets, FOX News and MSNBC, both began broadcasting to a national audience in 1996 provides a further basis for empirical research designed to evaluate the hypothesis that long-term viewership of ideologically inspired news sources decreases one's willingness to alter voting patterns, and is thus responsible for the reduced impact of news consumption on voting choice.