¶ … Republic of China in Taiwan and People's Republic of China, have been engaged in an age-old conflict since the Xinhai Revolution. The two sides have since been divided on ideological grounds fueled by foreign elements. After defeating Taiwan in the war of liberation, China has maintained dominance over Taiwan till date.[footnoteRef:1] [1: Hutchings, Graham. Modern China: A Guide to a Century of Change. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2001.]
The Taiwan crisis has become an ongoing issue. At present, there is rising tension between the two sides amid growing talks of Taiwan's independence. The hypothesis of the escalating situation in the order of most likely are 1) diplomatic solution, 2) limited intervention, or 3) direct attack.
Section II -- Most Likely to Occur: Diplomatic Solution
There is indication based on evidence that the Peoples' Repubilic of China and Taiwan will resolve the crisis by direct or multi-lateral negotiations. Hu Jintao, though firm on his position of non-tolerance on the Taiwan's independence, has indicated inclinations to flexible political relationship with Taiwan. He seems to adopt both soft and hardline stand on the Taiwan issue, on one hand willing to negotiate and on the other unwillingness to continue talks without preconditions.[footnoteRef:2] The impediment to the negotiation efforts in resolving the crisis diplomatically would be Hu Jintao's hardlinen stand and maintainance of military build-up against Taiwan as well as continued diplomatic isolation of Taiwan. This would lead to continued rise of diplomatic tension and would refute the diplomatic solutions hypothesis. [2: Sisci, Francesco. "Hu Jintao and the new China." Asia Times, June 28, 2006. Taiwan Affairs Of-ce of the State Council. The Taiwan Question and Reuni-cation of China . Beijing: PRC's government, 1993.]
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