Verified Document

Probability Probabilities According To Becker And Parker Essay

Related Topics:

Probability Probabilities according to Becker and Parker (2011) are used in both simulations and real life scenarios to help in the estimation of the occurrence of events. In the words of Gravetter and Wallnau (2008), "for a situation in which several different outcomes are possible, the probability for any specific outcome is defined as a fraction or a proportion of all the possible outcomes." In that regard, chance and randomness are some of the critical components of probability. It is important to note that in most cases, the ability of individuals to make sound decisions is largely dependent on how accurate they are in their estimation of the occurrence of future events. From time to time, it is not unusual to find ourselves confronted with probabilistic problems. In the next section, I will concern myself with four real life scenarios where the calculation and/or estimation of probability could come in handy.

To begin with, assuming I was granted a license to operate a small insurance firm in my neighborhood, probability estimation and computation would come in handy in the determination of the amount of premiums to be charged to my clients for the various covers extended to them. For instance, assuming I only offered one insurance product i.e. accident cover, I would compute premium rates on the basis of a number of parameters including but not limited to age of the applicant, number of accidents an individual has been...

I would set a high premium for individuals with bad driving records as the probability of such individuals causing accidents in future could be high. Thus the probability of an individual being engaged in an accident in future would in this case be based on the number of accidents such an individual has been involved in previously.
Secondly, assuming my doctor told me I had a growth that would require a risky surgical operation to remove, my decision on whether or not to go for surgery would depend on the success rate of the said procedure. In seeking to determine the success rate of the procedure, I would have to look at statistics in an attempt to determine how many individuals have survived the said operation in the past. Based on my findings and using probability concepts, I could easily determine my chances of surviving the said procedure.

Next, suppose I was planning a friend's wedding and the couple preferred that the event take place in an open space, it would be prudent on my part to determine the probability of there being a downpour on the wedding day. A high probability of there being a downpour would force me to either reschedule the said wedding for another day or organize for another venue. In this particular case, I could compute the likelihood of rain by examining the prevailing weather conditions in the past week or so.

Lastly, I could use probability concepts in an…

Sources used in this document:
References

Becker, K. & Parker, J.R. (2011). The Guide to Computer Simulation and Games. Malden, MA: John Wiley & Sons.

Black, K. (2009). Business Statistics: For Contemporary Decision Making (6th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Floyd, D. (2004). Business Studies. Glasgow: Letts and Lonsdale.

Gravetter, F.J. & Wallnau, L.B (2008). Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences (8th ed.). Belmont, CA: Cengage Learning.
Cite this Document:
Copy Bibliography Citation

Related Documents

Spotlighting Samplings 4 Qualitative Research Choices 6
Words: 16532 Length: 60 Document Type: Research Paper

Spotlighting Samplings 4 Qualitative Research Research Choices 6 the Phenomenology Method The Ethnography Method DEPTH Four Qualitative Approach Comparison Strengths and Critiques of Case Studies "A research design indicates the full research process from conceptualization of the research problem, generation of data, analysis and interpretation of findings, and dissemination of results" (Magilvy & Thomas, 2009, What and Why… Section, ¶ 4). The Question of Interest What type of research design should the researcher use? To answer the study's critical research

Impact of Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002 in Reducing Fraudulent Financial...
Words: 6052 Length: 15 Document Type: Literature Review

Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 in reducing fraudulent financial reporting Introduction to Fraudulent Financial Reporting Available research on financial statement fraud relies mostly on anecdotal evidence (for example, Wells, 2001, 2002, 2004a, and 2004b; Rezaee, 2003). This evidence offers advice on how mechanisms related to the fraud triangle can be curtailed. It leads to theoretical sense to reduce factors which lead to more instances of fraud. However, deterrence and established deterrence methods

Medical Research & Ethics Medical Research and
Words: 1958 Length: 5 Document Type: Essay

Medical Research & Ethics Medical Research and Ethics Conflict between Medical Research & Ethics Conflict between Medical Research & Ethics: Case of Tuskegee Syphilis Each day medical providers and researchers make decisions about what information is necessary to disclose to patients and under what circumstances they should make disclosures. In the clinical setting, the negative implications of a poorly considered disclosure decision can involve simple problems such as a patient being unaware that a

Sign Up for Unlimited Study Help

Our semester plans gives you unlimited, unrestricted access to our entire library of resources —writing tools, guides, example essays, tutorials, class notes, and more.

Get Started Now