Macro
Unemployment Forecast Outline
Current Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that although unemployment in the United States as whole had been declining the past several months, bottoming out in August, unemployment increased once again, raising above five percent in September. This was the first drop reported in employment data since May, due to the fact businesses that were closed and people who were displaced by the storm. The Social Security administration confirmed these figures, but the Congressional Budget office offered up a slightly higher figure of 5.5% for the unemployment rate.
Predictions
On the surface this was good news, the Labor Bureau reported, as economists had forecast a loss even more jobs last month. In addition to September's reading, the government revised its July and August numbers for unemployment, stating growth had been higher than previously expected in these months, putting the economy in a better position to withstand the impact of the nation's most costly storm. The Bureau's report said that August saw a gain of 211,000 jobs, up from the earlier estimate of a 169,000-job gain. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics may have underestimated shifts in unemployment data, particularly after major disasters, as it has historically in the past. While it is true that jobs generated by 'clean up' needs can compensate for the loss of jobs, the Bureau's figures and the Social Security administration's figures still count workers held on payrolls. These workers are counted as employed, even if they cannot do their jobs, and may have relocated to another area of the country as a result of the storm -- and are likely to have their position terminated soon.
Forecast
This is a tumultuous time for unemployment data, as Katrina's effects upon the economy are still uncertain, and have yet to 'play themselves out,' particularly given the massive relocation of human resources that occurred after the storm.
References
Bureau of Labor and Statistics (2005) retrieved on September 15, 2005 from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm
Congressional Budget Office (2005) retrieved on September 16, 2005 from http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfmindex=1824&; sequence=0
The Social Security Administration (2005) retrieved on September 15, 2005 from http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR05/V_economic.html#wp163836
Unemployment (2005). Wikipedia; The free encyclopedia.
Retrieved September 16, 2005 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment_rate
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