There is disagreement over which policy prescription is going to be more likely to damage the economy. The health of the U.S. economy, however, is subject to a lot of variables, and one's own economic situation is only somewhat affected by the state of the U.S. economy. Still, the voter wants to vote in a way that increases the odds of a positive financial outcome.
There are a number of tools that can help to visualize the choice, but decision trees are not easy to draw in Word. Excel can be used to perform the same function. The voter can calculate that if the President spends too much money it will cost $40,000 in future tax increases and decreased job prospects.
Candidate a
Certainty
Value
Outcome
Certainty
Value
Total Odds
Total Value
Net
Tuition Cut
50%
$10,000
None
80%
$0
40.0%
$10,000
$4,000.0
Bad Economy
20%
-$40,000
10.0%
-$30,000
-$3,000.0
No Tuition Cut
50%
$0
None
90%
0
45.0%
$0
$0.0
Bad Economy
10%
-$40,000
5.00%
-$40,000
-$2,000.0
-$1,000.0
Candidate B
Tax Cut
80%
$500
None
50%
0
40.0%
$500
$200.0
Bad Economy
50%
-$40,000
40.00%
-$39,500
-$15,800.0
No Tax Cut
20%
$0
None
90%
0
18.0%
$0
$0.0
Bad Economy
10%
-$40,000
2.00%
-$40,000
-$800.0
-$16,400.0
The wild card is that the bad economy might happen no matter what the policies on taxes and tuition are, because there are other policies and other global factors that affect the economy. These other factors clearly affect the outcome, because if the economy is bad, neither candidate is going to have a positive outcome. Governmental giveaways will not help the voter if the economy is in the tank and earning power decreases. Candidate B's tax cut is especially useless. While the voter might be tempted to discount the bad economy from the decision, because it is not related to the decision, the odds of a bad economy do change with the decision and this is important. Tuition increases are less likely to affect American competitiveness because they are a small part of the budget; tax cuts are a much larger part of the budget and therefore if they are not matched by spending...
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