Conflict prevention theory may seem contradictory in a country that has just held a civil war, but it remains an important focus of U.S. foreign policy going forward in Libya. Socio-historical problems facing Libya stem from the tribal bonds that divide the nation. The United States must focus on finding a balance between the tribes rather than supporting a single tribe over the others, as it had when cooperating with Qaddafi. Politically, the three major cities of Libya are Tripoli, Misrata and Benghazi. These cities will have to find a way to power broker themselves in order to create a thriving democracy, based in Tripoli, but representative of the other two cities, as all three places are cornerstones of Libya's future as well as strong reminders of the country's past, on which a successful future can be built.
Libya is the only country of the four analyzed in this paper that has massive oil revenue potential, which creates a dynamic of possible laziness by politicians and corruption between power holders who will be new to the recently acquired riches of oil wealth. Therefore, the U.S. must not limit its interactions with Libya's economic leaders based solely on oil, as opportunity for shipping in the Mediterranean Sea is also an important potential benefit at which the U.S. can look.
Syria
Syria is last on this list for a reason. Its fate as of now is still undetermined; however, it is by far the least likely of the Arab Spring states to succeed. The brutal dictatorship of the Assad Regime, as well as the proximity of Syria to radicalized Iran and its relatively closed border with the West, has meant that there is little Western sympathy and understanding in Washington of Syria's internal affairs. It is impossible to expect some sort of Libya-like NATO operation to lead to the same successes. Further, it would appear that Damascus and Aleppo are still supporting the Assad regime because of the unique minority sects of Christians and Druze in Syria.
Conflict prevention theory is unable to work in a country that is simply inhospitable to Western influence; however, there are still lessons that can be applied from conflict prevention theory into Syria, which can inform us as to how the West should approach this country, if indeed the Assad regime does fall. Socio-historically, for example, retaliations against minority sects, as well as considerations for the massive influence Iran holds in Syria need to both come into consideration if the West...
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