Forecasting terrorism: methods and applications

Forecasting Terrorism

Ideology may have an impact on the structure of organization which terrorist groups choose to adopt. The use of an organized network may make the organizing of operations easier due to the larger resources and expertise that are likely to be available to them than when operating as a small isolated group. The use of a network makes the may make the terrorists more proficient due to these extended resources and experience. The recruitment of younger members to the terrorist group is less problematic when using networked structures as it allows for tutelage of the newer recruits from experienced mentors. This lowers the risks associated with the operations which involve newer members and is likely to allow the unit to operate for a prolonged period of time.

Networks also provide an effective means for the terrorist organization to obtain intelligence, as there is only the requirement for one or two members of the organization to secure positions of trust. These one or two members then enable the collection of data which can be spread rapidly to a large number of different terrorist cells. With the current trends toward large global networks, this also encourages the spread of information to terrorists who are in countries in which they may be free to recruit and train in preparation for terrorist missions. Forming into these networks also allows for the sharing of information, so it ensures that operations are likely to be more successful due to the shared knowledge and experiences between different groups.