Effects of Population Implosion in Europe

¶ … Population Implosion in Europe

Roughly thirty years ago, a global think tank declared that population pressures would devastate the world by the mid-1990's, however, they did not foresee that women in the developed world would be producing fewer children (Specter 1998).

With life expectancy rising as the fertility rate drops, most developed countries may find themselves with lopsided societies, a large number of elderly and not enough young people working to support them (Specter 1998). Thus, every program that requires public funds, such as health care, education, pensions and military spending will be affected (Specter 1998).

Due to prosperity and freedom, millions of women are staying in school longer, putting more emphasis on work and marrying later, resulting in a rapid birth rate decline in many countries (Specter 1998). In Italy, women produce on average fewer than 1.2 children, the lowest figure every recorded among humans (Specter 1998). It is projected that Italy will lose nearly a quarter of its current population by 2050 (Elder 2003). When the Berlin Wall disappeared, it created economic uncertainties in that have frozen the birth rate from the Black Forest to Vladivostok (Specter 1998).

Never before, except in times of plague, war and deep economic depression, have birth rates fall so low, for so long" (Specter 1998). In fact there is not a single country in Europe where people are having enough children to replace themselves when they die (Specter 1998). In 1998, Italy became the first nation in history where there are more people over the age of sixty than there are under the age of twenty, with Germany, Greece and Spain following close behind (Specter 1998). Officials in France, like other European countries, see current world trends where populations of color, Africa, India, and Asia, are still growing, while their own is struggling to keep from shrinking (Specter 1998).

Although human life expectancy at birth more than doubled between 1900 and 2000, from thirty years to sixty-five years, the world's population only rose by a third, due to fertility patterns over the course of the 20th century, most significantly secular fertility decline: "sustained and progressive reductions in family size due to deliberate birth control practices" (Eberstadt 2001). "Secular fertility decline originated in Europe, and virtually every population in the world that can be described as of European origin today reports fertility rates below the replacement level" (Eberstadt 2001). One hundred years ago, Europe had fourteen percent of the world's population, today it has six percent, and by 2050, it will have four percent (Dale 2004).

According to experts, the solution is immigration. For Europe, the calculated long-term volume of immigration required to avert overall population decline is nearly double the recent annual level (Eberstadt 2001). To prevent the decline of the "working age," fifteen to sixty-four years of age, Europe's net migration will have to quadruple to a long-term average of 3.6 million per year (Eberstadt 2001). Migration of this magnitude will change the face of Europe, resulting in two scenarios: "by 2050...the descendants of present-day non-Europeans will account for approximately 20 to 25% of Europe's inhabitants" (Eberstadt 2001). Therefore, immigration is essentially an act of self-interest as Europe's economies are in desperate need of extra manpower (Eberstadt 2001). According to a 2001 United Nations report, by 2050, the E.U. will "require an influx of 35 million new adults to offset labor shortages and shore up creaking pension systems" (Eberstadt 2001).

Immigrants can provide Europe with valuable resources as it enters the new economy, by filling the low-wage jobs that Europeans do not want, and injecting the technical expertise that Europeans do not possess. "Employers want more labor at a low price and people with money want more services and it's difficult to see how that can come about with a declining population," says Joseph Chamie, director of the U.N.'s population division. "The sooner European governments look at migration as a solution, the easier it will be to adjust" (Knocking 2000).