Cyclical Unemployment
economists overstating cyclical unemployment rate understating natural rate?
Are economists overstating the cyclical unemployment rate and understating the natural rate?
Cyclical unemployment derives its name from the fact that it reflects the 'cyclical' ebbs and flows of the business cycle (Ask an economist, 2008, Labor Market Info). When the economy is doing poorly, workers are let go and are involuntarily unemployed. Although the contraction may begin within one economic sector, eventually most spheres are affected as people spend less money, causing production to slow and more workers to be laid off. As the economy improves, production increases, more workers are hired and more workers spend money.
However, other types of unemployment exist that are not directly related to the business cycle called 'natural' unemployment. "Frictional unemployment refers to workers who are temporarily without jobs and searching for new ones that are better suited to their skill sets and work preferences... Structural unemployment refers to unemployment that occurs when a changing economy creates a mismatch between the skills and qualifications of workers looking for jobs and the jobs that are available" (Ask...
Unemployment Rate The Disparity in the Unemployment Rate in the United States A recent article in the Sun Journal by Margaret Fisher (2012) has raised some serious questions as to the true state of the economy. While statistics from the department of labor assert the unemployment rate has dropped, giving the impression that the economy is in a recovery mode, Fisher maintains that this is misleading due to the fact that many
Unemployment rate in the United States has fluctuated between nine and ten percent for well over two years now ("Labor Force Statistics"). That rate is more than double what it was a mere ten years ago, putting millions more Americans on the unemployment compensation rolls. More alarming than the numbers is the general feeling of pessimism that has enveloped the country as the population wonders when the economy might turn
For example, one Pontiac Assembly plant in Pontiac, Michigan, "was running three consecutive eight-hour shifts, employing 3,000 people and making 1,300 trucks a day," in 2003, but in the summer of 2009, the plant had only 600 workers and "was running just one shift" (Mahler 2009, p.1). As a result of the failure of GM, the housing bubble, and the explosion of easy credit and 'creative' financing, many Michigan
Rubin (2016), President-elect Trump has vowed to stop inversions, but has offered a novel solution: a lower corporate tax rate. Trump's theory is that a lower corporate tax rate would "sharply reduce companies' incentives to take a foreign address," (p. 1). The corporate tax rate is currently at 35%. Trump and his pick for Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, suggest that 15% would generate sufficient federal revenues while discouraging companies
Thus, the testing will not only expose a relationship, but may shed light into how it will continue to evolve in the future. Using Microsoft Excel, a regression test was administered for each individual independent variable as it related to the dependent variable of general unemployment in Detroit. Data Automotive Industry Employment rates in thousands Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 96.9 2009 79.5 86.6 86.2 85.4 77.2 73.4 73.5 80.5 84.3 83.9 82.8 83.9 81.4 2010 82.7 82.7 82.6 83.3 83.8 85.0 81.2 83.3 87.6 89.4 89.8 90.2 85.1 2011 89.4 90.4 91.2 93.1 93.4 94.1 83.3 92.0 94.7 96.3 96.7 97.4 92.7 2012 97.6 98.2 99.3 97.4 98.5 99.5 95.8 96.8 97.7 97.7(P) P: Preliminary (United States Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012) Year Period labor force employment unemployment OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.872748 R Square 0.761689 Adjusted R. Square 0.7319 Standard Error 1.573775 Observations 10 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance
"The Detroit, Michigan drop-out rate among black males is 50%, the Detroit unemployment rate among black males is 50%" (Kill 145). This demonstrates that education is very important when considering unemployment rates and that the auto industry is, to a certain degree, not the only institution responsible for the critical conditions currently faced by individuals in Michigan. Although it is difficult to determine what other factors are responsible for the
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