Diffusion of innovation theory refers to the spread of ideas, materials, or strategies and can be applied both to counterterrorism policies or terrorist tactics themselves. By paying attention to the patterns of diffusion, governments can make more informed counterterrorism decisions or policies. At the same time, diffusion of innovation can show how terrorist tactics spread from one group to another or how extremism spreads throughout a region.Applied to Boko Haram, the diffusion of innovation theory can show how terrorist tactics used by one extremist group spread or how extremist ideology spreads from one region or group to another. Likewise, diffusion of innovation can help the government of Nigeria better cultivate an informed and potentially evidence-based response policy by adopting counterterrorism tactics used by other nations in similar situations. For example, Boushey (2012) shows how public policy innovations are diffused. Punctuated equilibrium is a method of diffusion in which feedback both positive and negative informs future policy choices. Another approach would be to use adoption capacity theory to show how certain factors influence a terrorist group's selection of tactics or strategies. Gilli & Gilli (2014) show how terrorist groups change their tactics depending on whether targets are hard or soft, and are more likely to resort to suicide bombings when targets are hard.
Diffusion of innovation theory can be applied to Boko Haram both by reviewing causal factors in the choice to disrupt public infrastructure and also applied to the Nigerian government's counterterrorism responses. However, the Nigerian government has yet to develop a cohesive enough counterterrorism policy to render empirical research worthwhile and it could be more sensible to concentrate on applying diffusion of innovation to Boko Haram in order to better predict and therefore mitigate the spread of the group's...
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