Probability
Probabilities according to Becker and Parker (2011) are used in both simulations and real life scenarios to help in the estimation of the occurrence of events. In the words of Gravetter and Wallnau (2008), "for a situation in which several different outcomes are possible, the probability for any specific outcome is defined as a fraction or a proportion of all the possible outcomes." In that regard, chance and randomness are some of the critical components of probability. It is important to note that in most cases, the ability of individuals to make sound decisions is largely dependent on how accurate they are in their estimation of the occurrence of future events. From time to time, it is not unusual to find ourselves confronted with probabilistic problems. In the next section, I will concern myself with four real life scenarios where the calculation and/or estimation of probability could come in handy.

To…...

mla

References

Becker, K. & Parker, J.R. (2011). The Guide to Computer Simulation and Games. Malden, MA: John Wiley & Sons.

Black, K. (2009). Business Statistics: For Contemporary Decision Making (6th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Floyd, D. (2004). Business Studies. Glasgow: Letts and Lonsdale.

Gravetter, F.J. & Wallnau, L.B (2008). Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences (8th ed.). Belmont, CA: Cengage Learning.

Probability Concepts & Applications
(1) Describe the rationale for utilizing probability concepts. Is there more than one type of probability? If so, describe the different types of probability.

One uses probability mathematics in order to assess the probability of a particular occurrence or the results of a particular action; For instance, whether or not one should go into a certain market or invest in a certain product -- what are the chances or possibilities of the product succeeding.

There are five major approaches of assigning probability: Classical Approach, elative Frequency Approach, Subjective Approach, Anchoring, and the Delphi Technique

Classical Approach -- this is used when each of the possibilities have an equally likely chance of occurring. The theorem is: P (X) = Number of favorable outcomes / Total number of possible outcomes

elative Frequency Approach -- calculation is based on past historical / experimental experience. Theorem: P (X) = Number of times an event occurred…...

mla

References

Aslan, I (2011) A Linear Programming Approach for Different Serial Machines

Scheduling with Optimizing Batch Size in a Flow Oriented Synchronized Production 2011 International Conference on Innovation, Management and Service, IPEDR vol.14

Barnett, MW . MODELING & SIMULATION IN Business PROCESS Management Gensym

http://www.ww.bptrends.com/publicationfiles/1103%20WP%20Mod%20Simulation%20of%20BPM%20-%20Barnett-1.pdf

All models are not perfect mirrors of reality, merely guides for the business professional. But the models of basic integral calculus allow a businessperson to at least apply a few indeterminate variables or scenarios to a model, to price a particular product.
For instance, when desiring to create a new product -- say, for instance, a shrimp-flavored potato chip, to be marketed in the United States, one might first conduct a marketing survey of a base of customers, to determine how much these consumers would be willing to pay for such a product. Usually, the cheaper the product, the more consumers would be willing or interested in adding such a product to their biweekly shopping list, although this is not uniformly the case -- with certain luxury products the price and the unavailability of a product is part of its attraction. A manager would then, after plotting such responses of…...

Probability provides a measurable and quantifiable indication of how likely a particular outcome is for an event or experiment. It is expressed as a numeric value between zero and one (inclusive), where an impossible event has a probability of zero and a certain event has a probability of one. Probability is conventionally written using the symbol P, and may be expressed as a percentage by multiplying P. By 100.
The problem at hand related to 1995 gold prices can be set up and solved in the following way, with µ (mu) representing the mean, ? (sigma) the standard deviation, X the target value, and x1 and x2 defining the target value range.

µ = $383; = $12; x1=$394; x2=$399

The probability that the client's gold will be sold the next day is given by:

P (x1...

mla

References

Annual Survey of Service Industries: Food Services and Drinking Places. (1999). Retrieved December 11, 2011, from  http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SurvId=4704&SurvVer=0&SDDS=4704&InstaId=15525&InstaVer=3&lang=en&db=imdb&adm=8&dis=2 

Arsham, H. (2011). Statistical Thinking for Managerial Decisions. Retrieved December 11, 2011, from  http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/Business-stat/opre504.htm 

Dendane, A. (2011, April 3). Normal Distribution Probability Calculator. Retrieved December 11, 2011, from  http://www.analyzemath.com/statistics/normal_calculator.html 

Regression Basics For Business Analysis. (n.d.). Retrieved December 11, 2011, from  http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/regression-analysis-basics-business.asp#axzz1gE9DOgSJ

Probability & Measures of Central endency
Solve the following problems showing your work:

In a poll, respondents were asked whether they had ever been in a car accident. 157 respondents indicated that they had been in a car accident and 117 respondents said that they had not been in a car accident. If one of these respondents is randomly selected, what is the probability of getting someone who has been in a car accident?

he data set represents the income levels of the members of a country club. Find the probability that a randomly selected member earns at least $88,000

total, 14 of them at or above $88,000 means the probability is:

In a certain class of students, there are 15 boys from Wilmette, 5 girls from Kenilworth, 9 girls from Wilmette, 6 boys from Glencoe, 2 boys from Kenilworth and 8 girls from Glencoe. If the teacher calls upon a student to answer a…...

mla

Tutorial on Measures of Dispersion, Retrieved February 12, 2011, from http://www.childrens-mercy.org/stats/definitions/stdev.htm

Overview of Measures of Dispersion, Retrieved November 12, 2008, from  http://www.unc.edu/~knhighto/econ70/lec2/lec2.htm 

Standard Deviation in the Stock Market, Retrieved August 27, 2008, from http://www.trade10.com/standard_deviati.htm

Probability is a basic mathematical concept that requires one to understand how odds work. Probability is a useful skill to have, whether for playing cards, or for implementing things like decision trees in business, where ideas like compound probabilities come into play. This paper will examine a few basic probability questions in order to outline how probability works and how it can be applied.
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes. Each possible outcome is an element. In this roll of the die there are 16 elements. Each of the first die rolls (1, 2, 3, 4) can be paired with one of the second die rolls (5, 6, 7, 8), to give a total of 16 possible combinations. Because of the nature of the dice, there is no overlap.

The event of two dice sum to 8 can have a few different outcomes, being any possible combination that…...

6, and the chances of rain is 0.4. Historical data may be used for forecasting, but past patterns will not necessarily be reliable.
To gain a more reliable assessment there are alternatives; the weather service makes advanced forecasts based on a large amount of data. However, to gain this information the business will have to pay a fee. This means that there is a cost associated with gaining the more accurate data. It may also be assumed that if data to be used in the decision is being gained from an external source, there may also be a time delay. If a fast decision is needed, the decision may need to be based only in the information at hand, trading off the potential accuracy to gain the speed. If the decision is not needed quickly, then the extra time may be well spent; accuracy will be gain at the cost of…...

mla

References

Ames, D. R; Weber, E. U; Zou, X, (2012), Mind-reading in strategic interaction: The impact of perceived similarity on projection and stereotyping, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 117, 96-110

Anderson, David R., Sweeney, Dennis J; Davis, Duane; Utts, Jessica M; Williams, Thomas a; Simon, Marilyn, (2001), Statistics and Research Methods for Managerial Decisions, South-Western College Publishing

Stine, Robert a; Foster, Dean, (2010), Statistics for Business: Decision Making and Analysis, Pearson

), distribution function allows to find a range of data for which probability of the event to occur is the highest, which allows to adjust business and working schedule to the distribution particularities.
Statistical devices such as probability distributions are used in analysis of employees' performance, sales analysis and marketing researches, as they allow to set the most optimal conditions for successful business performance and restructure business in accordance with probability distribution performance indicators, which allows to minimize business risks, shorten spendings and change business working atmosphere for better.

3. Conduct a literature and internet search and write a paper of between 200-300 words describing how business uses normal distribution. n your paper, discuss how a business person can benefit from using normal distribution.

Normal distribution has a number of applications in different areas of business. Math gives the following definition of normal distribution: "normal distribution (a bell-shaped curve) represents a theoretical frequency…...

mla

In order to apply probability theory and distribution methods to one's business, it's important to collect series of data which would provide the most extensive picture of business's performance, so that results of statistical processing and distribution qualities are close to the real situation.

http://www.doe.state.in.us/asap/definitions.html

  / http://www.netmba.com/statistics/distribution/normal 

An example of a business situation where the probability distribution may be utilized is a scenario where a manager attempts to predict employee retention. The statistical test would be a binary logistic regression analysis. The probability distribution is paramount to this example because it utilizes the dichotomous dependent variable of Yes/No (employee stays/employee quits). Independent variables that may be used to predict employee retention include education level, length of employment, age, income, and gender. The output from this statistical test may help a business manager screen individuals before employment to assess whether the individual may stay or leave for another position.

The majority of statistical tests use the normal distribution as a foundation. An example of a business situation that employs the attributes of the normal distribution is a supervisor who wants to assess spending habits between males and females in a retail store. The outcome of interest, or the dependent…...

mla

References

Berenson, M.L., Levine, D.M., & Krehbiel, T.C. (2001). Basic Business Statistics: Concepts and Applications. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Cleophas, T.J. (2004). Clinical trials: Renewed attention to the interpretation of the P. values -- review. Am J. Ther, 11(4), 317-322.

Healy, M.J. (1994). Statistics from the inside. 13. Probability and decisions. Arch Dis Child, 71(1), 90-94.

Ludbrook, J. (1995). Issues in biomedical statistics: comparing means under normal distribution theory. Aust NZJ Surg, 65(4), 267-272.

Money and Inflation
One of the most challenging issues in the modern economic environment is whether inflation or deflation will occur in the near future. This issue has become controversial and divisive among economists because of the volatile economic times. The nature of the modern economic environment has made it difficult for economists to agree on whether inflation or deflation is likely to be experienced in the future. While some economic analysts hold the view that a big increase in inflation is likely to occur in the coming years, others contend that deflation will occur. An example of the difference in opinion relating to inflation or deflation is the publications by Paul Krugman and Allan H. Meltzer. Even though the two reports were published on the same day i.e. May 3, 2009, they provide opposite views on the issue of whether inflation or deflation is likely to occur in the coming…...

Probability Distribution: Variability and FrequencyIncreasing the sample size in a study serves to decrease the variability in a study because larger sample sizes are more likely to reflect the true characteristics of the overall population that is being sampled. In this context, the term variability is used to refer to the extent to which individual data points are different from each other. For instance, a set of data with a low variability level will have data points that are clustered close to the mean and, conversely, high variability means the data points are spread out.Frequency is used to inform probability because probability is based on the likelihood of an outcome occurring, which is directly related to the frequency that outcome is typically observed. In other words, the more frequently an event happens, the higher the probability it will happen again at some point in the future and this relationship is…...

mla

References

Morrow, J. A. (n.d.). Normal Distribution Probability.

However, I forgot to account for the fact that many of my acquaintances and I are up well past midnight. As a result, it appeared that much of my heaviest texting traffic occurred in the hour or two after midnight. Therefore, my a.m. And p.m. texting numbers appear to be somewhat equal. Were I to recreate the experiment, I would divide the information into different 12-hour segments, ending the second segment at the approximate time that I go to bed, to account for the difference between my schedule and the schedule of the average person who wakes up around 7 a.m. And goes to bed around 11 p.m.
Results

Day

12 AM-11:59AM

12:00 PM- 11:59 PM

1

24

17

2

19

38

3

36

12…...

Probability -- Subjective, relative frequency, and probabilistic propensity
According to the academic definition of probability, the concept of probability involves a choice of some class of events (or statements) and an assignment of some meaning to probability claims about those events (or statements). For example, drawings from a deck of cards (with replacement) would be defined as PR (A/B) or as the number of possible drawings in which A occurs over the total number over which B. occurs. Such a definition of probability would be used when determining, for instance, if ESP existed -- the probability of randomly predicting cards held by the examiner would be determined, the relative frequency certain cards appeared during a particular session, as well as the subjective determinant of how likely it was such phenomena existed cognitively within the human brain. (Bartha, "Probability," 2004) If the subject could predict the unseen card more than would be…...

mla

Works Cited

Bartha, R. (2004) "Probability." Retrieved 5 November 2004 at  http://hps.elte.hu/seminar/2001/October/Szabo/angol011008/node5.html 

"Fitness." (2003) Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Retrieved 5 November 2004 at   / 'Propensity." (2001) Retrieved 5 November 2004 at http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/fitness 

Probability and Power
The part of the statistical lesson that I went through last week that has left a profound impact on me is the Poisson Distribution of numbers and the finding out the probability based on this distribution theory and formula. The French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson developed the Poisson Distribution in 1837 and is named after him. This distribution is used when it is safely assumed that the outcome is the number of times of an event that occurs. This form of distribution formula and theory is used to for determination of the probability of events that are rare events and it helps in giving the probability that an outcome occurs a specified number of times and when the number of trials is generally large and there is a small chance of probability of any one occurrence (Hulley, 2007).

The Poisson distribution can be used in a number of scenarios…...

mla

References

Chan, S., Zee, Y., Jayson, G., & Harris, J. (2011). 'Risky' research and participants' interests: the ethics of phase 2C clinical trials. Clinical Ethics, 6(2), 91-96.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ce.2011.011019 

Hulley, S. (2007). Designing clinical research. Philadelphia, PA: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Probability Distributions
The variables in problem 5.1 are either discrete or continuous. Which are they and why?

Number of siblings -- continuous. This is because the number of siblings cannot change at the moment

Number of conversations -- discrete. There will be more conversations to be held between the children and the mothers.

Explain why the variable "number of dinner guests for Thanksgiving dinner" is discrete.

The variable is discrete because the number of guests can change through cancelation or extra invites.

Explain why the variable "number of miles to your grandmother's house" is continuous.

The variable is continuous because the distance cannot change and the house will not move as it is stationary.

Problem

Express P (x) =1/6; for x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, in distribution form.

P (1) = 1/6

P (2) = 2/6 = 1/3

P (3) = 3/6 = 1/2

P (4) = 4/6 = 2/3

P (5) = 5/6

P (6) = 6/6

b. Construct a histogram of…...

Toulmin Argument

Toulmin's model of argumentation offers a structured framework for constructing and evaluating arguments. It consists of six elements:

Claim: The proposition being argued.
Data: The evidence supporting the claim.
Warrant: The reasoning that connects the data to the claim.
Backing: The evidence supporting the warrant.
Qualifier: A term expressing the level of certainty or probability assigned to the claim.
Rebuttal: A statement acknowledging and addressing counterarguments.

Selecting Essay Topics

To select essay topics that cover Toulmin argument, focus on topics that require you to:

State a clear claim: Identify a proposition that you can support with evidence.
Gather and analyze data:....

1. The Fibonacci sequence and its applications in physics
2. Chaos theory and its implications for understanding complex systems in physics
3. The role of symmetry in modern physics
4. Fractal geometry and its applications in modeling natural phenomena
5. The use of wave equations in describing physical processes
6. The concept of infinity in calculus and its significance for physics
7. The mathematical foundations of quantum mechanics
8. Differential equations and their role in modeling physical systems
9. The geometry of spacetime in general relativity
10. The role of group theory in understanding the fundamental forces of nature
11. The applications of calculus in solving problems in classical mechanics
12.....

The Teleological Argument, also known as the argument from design, posits that the existence of intricate order and complexity in the natural world points to the existence of a higher power or intelligent designer. This argument has been a topic of debate and discussion among theologians, philosophers, and scientists for centuries. In this essay, we will explore the origins and key principles of the Teleological Argument, examine its strengths and weaknesses, and consider its implications for our understanding of the universe and our place in it.
One of the key strengths of the Teleological Argument is its ability to provide a....

The Teleological Argument: A Persuasive Case for a Cosmic Designer

The Teleological Argument, also known as the Argument from Design, presents a persuasive case for the existence of a designer in the universe based on the intricate order and purpose observed in nature. This argument postulates that the universe exhibits undeniable signs of intelligent design, suggesting the handiwork of a supreme being.

Irreducible Complexity and the Watchmaker Analogy

One compelling aspect of the Teleological Argument lies in the concept of irreducible complexity. Living organisms often possess structures or systems that cannot function unless their parts are fully assembled. For instance, the bacterial flagellum....