The distributor would as such be able to identify the new needs of the customers and the suppliers, and will be able to serve them in quick and efficient manner, by delivering results before the competition even becomes aware of the existence of the changes incurred. In other words, competitive advantages would be created (oyer, 2005). Within the longer term, a suggestion is made in the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods in order to increase the accuracy of the forecasting processes.
4. Inflation projections

Aside from the integration of customer and supplier traits in the completion of the forecasting efforts, in is also recommended for the company to also integrate other macro economic traits in its projections. This necessity is pegged to the fact that EBBD is an intermediary company, distributing the items produced by others to the end consumers. This feature makes it more sensitive to movements within the…...

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References:

Belke, a., Polleit, T., 2010, Monetary economics in globalized financial markets, Spinger

Lindeke, R., Forecasting models,   last accessed on June 5, 2012http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CHcQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.d.umn.edu%2F~rlindek1%2FPOM%2Fassets%2FIE3265_Forecasting.ppt&ei=5O_NT7KwDrCa1AWS7YWTDA&usg=AFQjCNGNbb42WCmY02dyuxVM1UEpjEj6mA 

Meyer, B.H., Pasaogullari, M., 2010, Simple ways to forecast inflation: what works best? Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,   last accessed on June 5, 2012http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-17.cfm 

Mishkin, F.S., 2007, Monetary policy strategy, MIT Press

Forecasting Indices
The following figure is taken from sales data of sporting goods, graphed over the last four years, showing worldwide demand for wave and ski boards combined. Each line on the graphic shows combined sales of wave and ski boards. The significant ramp in sales throughout March and April are attributable to the launch of each seasons' new wave boards. The spoke in sales in October are attributable to ski board sales ramping on a seasonal basis. In aggregate the market continues to grow for these products, generating a compound annual growth rate (CAG) for the four years of 4.76%. Using averaging based on four periods generates the Averaging line shown in the following graphic.

Forecasting Analysis

A relatively simplistic approach to defining year 5's inventory doesn't necessarily capture the variation in forecasts over the four previous years. As can be seen from the graphic on the previous page, simple averaging only…...

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References

Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (1993). Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research. International Journal of Forecasting, 9(2), 147-147.

Snyder, D. (1982). Current approaches to time series forecasting. Business Forum, 7(2), 24-24.

Ziegel, E.R. (2006). Computational intelligence in time series forecasting. Technometrics, 48(3), 451-451.

The information is then collected and summarized and presented to the experts. The experts can then reconsider their answers and adjust them. This process can continue as required, with the intention being for a general consensus to emerge. The purpose of the technique is to utilize a range of experts, but in a way where each gives their opinion independently. The main difference between this method and other forecasting methods is that the forecasting is based on opinions, rather than data.
Another forecasting technique is moving-average forecasting. It is used to predict future events based on the assumption that future events will be based on past events. Another related method based on the same assumption is exponential smoothing. This method takes the same approach as moving-average forecasting and also forecasts future events based on past events. The difference is that the calculation includes an adjustment that takes into account both…...

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References

Schermerhorn, J.R. (1999). Management for Productivity. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Slack, N., Chambers, S., Harland, C., Harrison, A., & Johnston, R. (1998). Operations Management. San Francisco, CA: Pitman Publishing.

Forecasting
Operations Management Managers Module 3 - SLP Forecasting Consider organization selected previous SLP papers. Integrate concepts operations management principles 've studying module turn page paper addressing questions (remember references): 1) How forecasting carried organization ( level discussing)? 2) How relate product development services offers? 3) What difficulties organization faces coming accurate forecasts? Could improve forecasts methods? SLP Assignment Expectations: esearch organization information find internet resources find .

Forecasting: Wal-Mart

Q1, How is forecasting carried out in your organization (be sure to specify the level you are discussing)

Wal-Mart has long made use of a forecasting technique called the Collaborative Forecasting and eplenishment (CFA) initiative, designed to integrate its internal processes of forecasting likely supply and demand with the forecasts of its suppliers. Wal-Mart "provides each of its major suppliers with a profit-and-loss statement for the goods received from that supplier" (Darling & Semich 1996). Using Wal-Mart's data warehouse, suppliers can run complex queries,…...

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References

Darling, Charles B. & J. William Semich. (1996). Wal-Mart's IT secret. Asia Associates.

Retrieved July 27, 2011 at http://asiassociates.com/success/past/article5.html

Gregory, Sean. (2009, September 14). Wal-Mart vs. Target in recession: No contest.

Time Magazine. Retrieved July 27, 2011 at  http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1885133,00.html

Forecasting
The type of forecasting that should be in place at an insurance company is time series analysis, as it is through this approach to forecasting that prior demands are used to predict future demands (Chase et al. 2005). At the particular insurance corporation in question, this is precisely the type of forecasting that is in place; the number of claims expected in a given period of time is based on the number of claims (in relation to the number of clients covered by insurance policies) in previous comparable time periods, and perhaps more importantly the specific time demands of any given claim are predicted based on the average times of claims handled by the organization. For firms like insurance companies where per-unit "production" times and resource demands vary, time series analysis is an essential means of forecasting to ensure proper human and other resources are available (Armstrong 2001).

Time series analysis…...

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References

Armstrong, J. (2001). Principles of Forecasting. New York: Springer.

Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S. & Hyndman, R. (2008). Forecasting Methods And Applications. New York: Wiley.

Forecasting Methods
There are three basic forecasting methods namely the time series methods, the regression methods, and qualitative methods. Qualitative methods use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts. These methods are most commonly used in long-term strategic planning process bearing in mind there are individuals within an organization whose judgment and opinion are very integral in the running of search organizations (Brown, 1959). In fact their opinions count more than those of experts drawn from outside the organization. Quantitative methods make use of mathematical and statistical tools to capture and analyze information. They are used to measure and model outcomes, eliminating rogue results and other influences (Brown, 1959). Investment managers use quantitative methods to value different classes of securities, analyze criteria for guiding investment decisions, and measure risk and asset return. Quantitative methods are also used in calculating yields and prices, frequency distributions, and risk, and probability.

Scholars have come…...

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References List

Brown, R.G. (1959). Statistical forecasting for inventory control. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Hanke, J. & Reitsch, A. (1992). Business Forecasting (4th edn.). New York: Simon & Schuster.

Forecasting
Sales Forecast for iordan Manufacturing

iordan Manufacturing is pursuing a growth strategy, with a stated target of increasing sales by $50 million by the end of 2007. According to the annual invoices issued for 2005, the firm already has annual sales of $50.8 million; this is a target to effectively double the demand over a period of two years. The sales will be achieved through increasing sales to existing customers, which is expected to account for 60% of the increase, as well as attracting new customers. To put the plan into action it is necessary not only to develop underlying strategies to promote growth such as the increased incentives for the sales force, it is also essential to develop a sales forecasting plan.

When forecasting sales there are different methods which may be utilized, some are more scientific than others. One approach may be to make educated guesses, looking at past performance…...

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References

Armstrong, JS, (1985), Forecasting, From Crystal Ball to Computer, John Wiley and Sons.

Koehler, Anne B; Bowerman, Bruce; O'Connell, Richard, (2003), Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression: An Applied Approach, Brooks/Cole

Forecasting Future Trrends in Digital Crime And
Forecasting Future Trends in Digital Crime and Digital Terrorism

FOECASTING FUTUE TENDS IN DIGITAL CIME AND 1

Forecasting Future Trends in Digital Crime and Digital Terrorism

Cybercriminal threats that have been going on in the U.S. result in important financial losses. Nevertheless the threat against financial organizations is just a small section of the issue. Likewise of thoughtful concern are considered to be threats to critical substructure, the theft of intellectual property, and supply chain matters. U.S. critical infrastructure faces a mounting cyber threat owing to progressions in the availability and complexity of malevolent software tools and the fact that new technologies are out there raising new security concerns that cannot continuously be addressed previous to adoption. The growing mechanization of our perilous infrastructures delivers more cyber contact points for opponents to abuse. With that said this paper will analyze the forecasts and describe the important factors…...

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References:

Ahmad, R. & . (2012). A dynamic cyber terrorism framework. International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,, 10(2), 149-158.

Eijkman, Q. (2013). Digital security governance and accountability in europe: Ethical dilemmas in terrorism risk management. Journal of Politics and Law,, 6(4), 35-45.

Grabosky, P. (2007). The internet, technology, and organized crime. Asian Journal of Criminology, 2(2), 145-161.

Robert W. Taylor, E.J. (2011). Digital Crime, Digital Terrorism, . Prentice Hall.

Forecasting Techniques Using Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Weighted Moving Average
Forecasting is an attempt to predict the future using either quantitative or qualitative technique. Forecasting is an integral part of human activity, however, businesses are increasingly using the forecasting technique to predict sales, demand planning, cost projection, inventory control, corporate planning, advertising planning, production planning and investment cash flow. (Lucey, 2002). While there are different strategies that can be used for the forecasting, however, the time-series analysis is one of the effective strategies that businesses use for the forecasting. The time series analysis is a form of the statistical or mathematical technique using the past data to forecast the future. The benefit of the time series analysis is the simplicity. The examples of the time series analysis are the moving average, weighted moving average and exponential smoothing.

The objective of the study is to use the moving average, weighted moving average…...

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Reference

Lucey, T. (2002). Quantitative Techniques (Sixth Edition).UK. Cengage Learning EMEA.

Forecasting Techniques
Business decisions require accurate forecasting which takes into account the possible trends and twists in the economy and the society. One of the earliest accounts of forecasting can be found in the Bible when Joseph interpreted dreams and told people there would be seven years of harvest followed by seven years of drought. With careful forecasting, the Pharaoh and his people could prepare themselves for the latter period of adversity. While business experts may no longer rely on dreams or even hunches, they still engage in consistent forecasting with the help of current data, models, forecasting methods and various popular theories. Forecasting is thus an important part of business planning since business decision makers are more interested in formulating policies and strategies that are based on accurate information of current and future trends instead of randomly coming up with ideas and measures for the future.

Past is usually seen as…...

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References

Denise Burnette, Nancy Morrow-Howell, Li-Mei Chen, The Gerontologist. Washington: Dec 2003. Vol. 43, Iss. 6; pg. 828

Chaman L. Jain, The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems. Flushing: Fall 2004. Vol. 23, Iss. 3; pg. 2, 3 pages

Forecasting is the process of using data from previous intervals to determine future data. Meteorologists use data from previous weather events to predict future weather patterns. In a similar way, sales can help to predict future inventory stocking needs by accumulated data from previous years. The first step in the process is to create an index for each month by dividing the current month by the index (or first) month. For example, month one of the first year is equal to 55,200. Month one of the second year is equal to 39,800. Dividing the second year by the first year gives an index result of 0.721014. An index number smaller than one indicates a decrease in the number from the first year to the second, and an index number greater than one shows an increase from one year to the next. The following chart shows the resulting index for each…...

These one or two members then enable the collection of data which can be spread rapidly to a large number of different terrorist cells. With the current trends toward large global networks, this also encourages the spread of information to terrorists who are in countries in which they may be free to recruit and train in preparation for terrorist missions. Forming into these networks also allows for the sharing of information, so it ensures that operations are likely to be more successful due to the shared knowledge and experiences between different groups.
The majority of terrorist threats come from groups which are spread throughout an area rather than inhabiting one particular place. The use of networks allows all these separate groups to act in ways which create combined effects, which are more successful in advances towards the network's shared goals (Sageman).

eferences

Sageman, Michael. Understanding Terror Networks. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press,…...

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References

Sageman, Michael. Understanding Terror Networks. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004.

The narrow selfishness of these terrorists then relate to the well-being of their families in either the positive or negative sense. They engage in suicidal terrorism to either protect their families from the threat of harm, or to provide them with comfort by means of money.
On the other hand, Caplan also notes that suicidal terrorism is extremely rare, and is therefore a greater indicator of self-interest among terrorists than engaging in suicidal activities. The author concludes that it is probably more rational not to wish to commit suicide for the cause of terrorism than it is to do so. Available statistics appear to confirm this.

Caplan cites terrorist beliefs as one of the main reasons for the perception of their actions as irrational. One of these improbable beliefs is the example of the 72 virgins mentioned above. This is the reward promised for suicide bombers. Furthermore, extreme predictions regarding the…...

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Sources

Caplan, Bryan. (2005, May). Terrorism: The relevance of the rational choice model. Fairfax, VA: George Mason University. http://cipp.gmu.edu/archive/Relevance-of-the-Rational-Choice-Model-Caplan.pdf

Emery, Norman, Werchan, Jason & Mowles, Donald G. Jr. (2005, Jan-Feb). Fighting terrorism and insurgency: shaping the information environment. Military Review

 http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/is_1_85/ai_n13821821 

Lavrov, Sergey V. (2004, Jun-Aug). Building a collective response to terrorism. UN Chronicle.  http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1309/is_2_41/ai_n6234392

Subject: Findings from analyzing the Arapahoe County 2017 Adopted Budgets by using the 2013-16 Adopted Budgets to establish a baseline for comparison The purpose of this memo is to relay to you the findings I obtained from a comprehensive analysis of the Arapahoe County 2017 Adopted Budgets through the preceding Adopted Budgets for the preceding 2013 – 2016 financial years, with the aim of developing a baseline for making comparisons. The main objective of this analysis is to pinpoint prospective areas to make inquiries to the department regarding the budget submissions made.
The forecasting process was conducted in three ways. The first approach was through regression using the forecast function. The forecasted amounts for all expense categories increased as compared to the 2016 Adopted Budget. The adopted budgets for 2013 to 2016 fiscal years ranged from 8.4 million to 12.4 million. The second approach employed for the budget projection is the compounded…...

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There is an expense item in the comparisons between the high and low projections and the 2017 Adopted Budget amounts that necessitates increased analysis and scrutiny. The projections for the central services indicates an alarming change between the two projections. The low projection stands at 56.61 percent whereas the high projection stands at 1.38 percent. This is indicative of a significant discrepancy and therefore necessitates detailed and closer scrutiny.

The methods of projecting the 2017 budget seems to highlight a number of issues on what the budget developers came up with. This is based on the fact that the 2017 Adopted Budgeted expense items are considerably lower in comparison to the 2017 low projections and 2017 high projections. The 2017 adopted budget is $10,614,333 whereas the total low projection is $11,938,401 and the total high projection is $13,058,708. This indicates that the amounts in the adopted budgets are lower than the projections given. This approach without doubt can act as a standard stick to employ in assessing future budgets to ascertain if the request of the Clerk and Recorder’s department request is not at par. In this particular case, the high and low projections show that the budgeted amounts are too low.

 

Forecasting being the marketing business process as well as web improvement of shaping the kind of business souk that individuals are involved in as well as how demographically the said souk is, it can as well engross attempting to envisage the trends of the present market in order to anticipate, develop as well as meeting the alternating needs of the market strategies as well as business plans. Forecasts are very appropriate in the short-term operations and it has proved to be of a great help to businesses managers. In addition, forecasting has also emerged as the most appropriate managing tool used mainly in planning day-to-day details operations for the subsequent week. Just like the operating budget, forecasts focuses to the future as well as supporting in administrative detailed planning of the operations for the future (subsequent week and month).For instance, when the business is preparing for the operations of the…...

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Work Cited

Cetron, Marvin J. & Christine A. Ralph, (1971). Industrial Application of Technological Forecasting. Its utilization in R & D. management. New York Wiley Interscience.

Chambers, John C., Satinder. K, Mullick & Donald D. Smith. (1974). An executive Guide to Forecasting. New York. Wiley.

Wheelwrite, Steven C. And Spyros Makridakis, (1973). Forecasting Methods for management. New York, Wiley.

Wolfers, Justin and Eric Zitzewitz, (2004). "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18 (2): 107-126.

Below is an example essay to help give you ideas when writing your own paper.

Title: Bridging the Skills Gap in the South African Supply Chain Industry

Introduction:
In today's rapidly evolving global economy, the supply chain industry plays a vital role in ensuring the efficient flow of goods and services. However, South Africa's supply chain sector faces a significant skills gap, hindering its growth and competitiveness. To address this challenge, it is essential to identify and cultivate generic, transferable, core, or key attributes that can bridge this gap effectively. This essay will discuss the different forms of such attributes....

1. Data-driven decision making: Business statistics provide organizations with quantitative data that can be used to make informed decisions. By analyzing data on market trends, customer behavior, and operational performance, organizations can make strategic decisions that are based on evidence rather than intuition.

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3. Risk management: Business statistics can help organizations identify potential risks and opportunities....

Essay Topic 1: Fiscal Challenges of Local Governments

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Body Paragraph 1: Explore the impact of state and federal policies on local government funding, such as budget cuts and revenue restrictions.
Body Paragraph 2: Analyze the role of property taxes as a major source of local revenue and the challenges associated with maintaining fair and equitable assessments.
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Outlining and Measuring Pollution in Different Environments

Identifying and Categorizing Pollutants

The first step in effectively outlining pollution is to identify and categorize the potential contaminants present in an environment. This can be done through a combination of:

Environmental sampling: Collecting samples of air, water, soil, and other environmental media to analyze for specific pollutants.
Literature review: Consulting scientific literature and databases to identify known or suspected pollutants in the area.
Stakeholder engagement: Gathering input from local industries, residents, and environmental groups to identify potential sources and types of pollution.

Outlining Pollution Sources and Pathways

Once pollutants have been identified, it is crucial to....