TERRORIST THREAT ASSESSMENT

Terrorist Threat Assessment: White Supremacy

In its September 2021 report to the House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Reform, the FBI acknowledged that the greatest terrorism threat in the US is posed by small cells and lone actors who use easily accessible weapons to attack soft targets (FBI, 2021). The main manifestations of these threats are Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs) and Domestic Violent Extremists (DVE) arising domestically (FBI, 2021). HVEs are influenced or inspired by foreign terrorist groups although they do not have direct links or receive individualized orders from these groups (FBI, 2021). Conversely, DVEs commit acts of terrorism to further certain political or social goals arising from domestic issues, such as anti-government sentiments and ethnic or racial bias (FBI, 2021).

DVEs who act in furtherance of ethnic or racial goals are referred to as RMVEs (Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists) (FBI, 2021). According to the FBI, RMVEs advocating for white superiority accounted for a majority of DVE-perpetrated lethal attacks in 2018 and 2019 (FBI, 2021). This text analyzes the threat posed by violent white supremacists in the US given their recent trends. It looks at their history, common tactics, and violent activity today to assess the threat they pose and make policy recommendations to police administrators, managers, investigators, and patrol officers. The intelligence used in generating the report was gathered through a review of relevant reports from the FBI, Department of Homeland Security (DHS), as well as committees of both Congress and the House of Representatives. The report begins with a brief background of the problem and reported issues.

A Brief Background of the Problem

The FBI acknowledges that violent white supremacists pose the greatest threat in domestic extremism against civilians in the US (FBI, 2021). In June 2015, Dylan Roof, a white supremacist, entered a church in Charleston, North Carolina, and slaughtered nine African-Americans attending a worship service (US Congress Report, 2020). In 2017, neo-Nazis in a riot in Charlottesville, Virginia, wounded a number of civilians and killed a counter-rioter, Heyer Heather, in a terrible automobile incident (US Congress Report, 2020). In another incident, a white Supremacist affiliated to the neo-Nazis entered the Tree of Life Worship Centre in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, killing eleven parishioners and wounding six others (US congress Report, 2020). In one of the worst extremist attacks so far, a white supremacist furthering hate against immigrants entered a Walmart store in El Paso, Texas, and shot indiscriminately at shoppers, leaving 23 dead and 23 others seriously injured (US Congress Report, 2020). These are only isolated incidents that have made news headlines in recent years. However, according to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), RMVEs perpetrated 98 extremist incidents between 2011 and 2020, 40 of which were perpetrated by white supremacists alone (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021).

The ADLs 2020 Report on Murder and Extremism found that 53 percent of the 17 murders related to extremist violence in the US in 2020 were perpetrated by white supremacists (ADL, 2020). White supremacists accounted for 81 percent of the 42 reported extremist-related killings in 2019, and 58 percent of the 430 terrorism-related killings between 2008 and 2018 (ADL, 2020).

In October 2020, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) described white supremacy extremists as a lethal and persistent threat, particularly with current trends that have seen it network with like-minded persons outside the US (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021). In the same year, the FBI elevated extremism linked to racial or ethnic bias, including white supremacy, to the same level of national threat as the Islamic State (IS) (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021). Unfortunately, racial extremism threatens the security of Americans and takes an emotional and physical toll on the affected communities.

White Supremacists Ideology, Goals, Methods, and Tactics

The Goal(s)

The goal of the White Supremacists is to ensure that the white man maintains his elevated status amidst increasing interracial relationships and immigration rates (Mulligan et al., 2021). The movement is founded on the white genocide theory, which argues that the changing demographics resulting from immigration pose a threat to the white race (Mullian et al., 2021). For this reason, the group targets immigrants of color and justifies the use of war to protect the superiority of the white race from its enemies (Smith, 2019). The movement includes neo-Nazis, white nationalists, and those who subscribe to anti-Semitic, anti-Muslim, and anti-immigrant beliefs (Mulligan et al., 2021).

The Motivations

White Supremacists are motivated by racial and ethnic biases and their activities are pegged on the logics of slavery and genocide (Smith, 2019). The logic of slavery, one of the pillars of White Supremacy, equates blackness with slaveability (Smith, 2019). It commodifies black people as slaves or property and argues that the white man is justified to treat the black man as they do any other property, including making gains from their labor and selling them off at the marketplace (Smith, 2019). The genocide pillar argues that indigenous people need to disappear so that the non-natives can control the resources, culture, and lan originally controlled by the natives (Smith, 2019). The genocide pillar justifies the psychological and physical removal of indigenous people to ensure they vanish completely and cannot reclaim their resources (Smith, 2019). Based on the genocide pillar, non-natives feel that they can rightfully eliminate indigenous people and take full control of their resources (Smith, 2019).

The Methods

White Supremacists use several methods to further their violence. They use social spaces, websites, and internet-based platforms to organize, recruit new members, and advance their narratives (Mulligan et al., 2021). A report by the Tech Transparency Project (as cited in Mulligan et al., 2021) found that White supremacists use social media platforms to amplify messages of hate and direct users to more extreme forums, channels, and content. For instance, hours before he was accosted by the FBI in 2020, Timothy Wilson, a white supremacist, had posted anti-Semitic messages on a white supremacist social group in the Telegram messaging app, expressing his plan to attack a school, synagogue, mosque, or hospital with large numbers of blacks (Perrigo, 2020). Further, the group was found to use the internet to reach out to, and engage with groups with shared grievances around governance, such as QAnon communities (Perrigo, 2020).

White supremacists also use in-person forums to plan attacks, organize, and conduct training for recruits (Mulligan et al., 2021). According to the American Progress, the use of in-person meetings has helped the organization thrive unnoticed as most law-enforcement efforts focus on online platforms (Mulligan et al., 2021). Reports indicate that Michigan governor,...

To address this, police administrators and managers need to enhance their oversight and accountability systems for officers with white supremacy affiliations (Mulligan et al., 2021). This could involve developing a set of widely-accepted policies and conduct standards that address racist behaviour online and on-the-job. Such policies will make it easier for administrators to hold accountable officers engaging in racial discourse or those affiliated with white supremacy groups. Moreover, such policies could be designed to include best practices that prevent white supremacists from serving as law-enforcement officers. It may also be beneficial for administrators to offer support and training to help officers identify radicalization, counter it, and report any recruitment and mobilization attempts for effective action.

Forecasted Issues for Investigators and Patrol Officers

This analysis projects increases in the activities and lethality of white supremacist extremism in the coming years. The first reason for this is increases in funding resulting from diversification into cryptocurrency and crowdfunding opportunities. White supremacist activities are also projected to increase due to increased collaboration and online engagement with more powerful insurgency groups in foreign countries interested in facilitating attacks in the US. Both of these pose significant issues to investigators and patrol officers who interact with white supremacy groups daily.

To address this, there is a need for investigators and patrol officers to receive support and training to easily identify online crowdsourcing sites that could be used to recruit, organize, and fund white supremacy activities. Further, patrol officers and investigators may need support and training to better understand cryptocurrency and other payment modalities that extremist organizations could use to solicit finances to run their activities. Further, there will be a need for investigators and patrol officers to invest in monitoring technologies and enhance their ability to monitor online and physical activity to understand trends in collaboration and transnational engagement between white supremacists and foreign extremist groups. This will help identify new collaborations and effectively curb white supremacists attempts to increase their lethality using resources obtained from foreign organizations.

Conclusion

In conclusion, white supremacists pose a significant threat of domestic terrorism in the US. This assessment points to an increase in the activity and lethality of white supremacy extremism in the coming years. This increase is expected to be a result of increased funding through cryptocurrency and crowdfunding, infiltration of law-enforcement communities, and increased collaboration with foreign extremist groups via the internet. This text recommends that police managers and administrators:

i) Develop a set of widely-accepted policies and conduct standards that address racist behaviour online and on-the-job

ii) Develop best practices that prevent white supremacists from serving as law-enforcement officers

iii) Offer support and training to help officers identify radicalization, counter it, and report any recruitment and mobilization attempts for effective action.

For investigators and patrol officers, the text recommends that:

i) Officers receive support and training to easily identify online crowdsourcing sites that could be used to recruit, organize, and fund white supremacy activities

ii) Officers obtain relevant support and training to better understand cryptocurrency and other payment modalities that extremist organizations could use to solicit finances to run their activities

iii) Officers invest in monitoring technologies and enhance their ability to monitor online and…