¶ … Unemployment on Voter Turnout Rates in Britain's Elections In many countries where voting is a right but not compulsory, voter turnout levels have declined precipitously in recent years, causing a growing number of political scientists to examine the effects of various variables on these rates. By contrast, in countries where voting is compulsory such as Australia, Belgium and Italy, voter turnout levels approach 100% (Forman, 2002). The research on political behavior to date has analyzed a wide range of variables that affect voter turnout positively (such as mail ballots or electronic voting from home) or negatively (such as poll taxes or voter identification requirements) (Childers & Binder, 2012). There has been far less research, though, concerning the potential impact of other variables such as employment status on voter turnout levels. For example, Incantalupo (2015) emphasizes that, "At present, gaps exist in our understanding of how unemployment affects political attitudes and behavior in part because there has been so little attention paid to unemployment as a personal hardship and the disparate contexts in which someone can experience unemployment" (p. 4). In fact, it has been more than 30 years when unemployment levels were high since scholarship was focused on unemployment and theories of unemployment were created and evaluated (Incantalupo, 2015), a gap that the proposed study will help fill as discussed further below.

Background and Overview

The importance of voter turnout has become the focus of a growing body of research as a result of differing rates of political participation by various economic and political groups (Schur & Shields, 2002). This research has built on an original study by Downs in 1957 that described the expected utility theory of voting as affecting voter turnout levels. According to Nicholson and Miller (1993), "In its original form, this theory posits that decisions to vote hinge on two factors: the probability that a single vote will affect the outcome of an election and the costs associated with voting" (p. 199). Since the likelihood that a single vote will have an impact on the outcome of an election, many citizens may not vote because the benefits of their voting are discounted compared to the costs that are involved (Nicholson & Miller, 1993).

From Downs' (1957) perspective, it is frequently more "rational" for citizens to not vote because they will have little impact on an election's outcome. In this regard, Abramson and Diskin (2007) note that, "Although the cost of voting is low, the probability that a single voter will affect the outcome in a large election is negligible. Rational citizens, realizing that their probability of affecting the outcome is negligible, may choose to abstain" (p. 501). Downs (1957) conceptualized his theory with the following equation:

R = (B)(P) -- C + D

In this equation, R is the total reward a citizen will gain after voting, B is the benefit one thinks he or she will accrue from having his or her preferred candidate win in an election, P is an individual's perception of the probability that his or her vote will change the outcome of an election, C is the cost associated with voting in terms of time, money and other resources, while D is the psychic satisfaction an individual would gain from voting. If R is positive, the individual is likely to gain a reward from voting that outweighs costs. Hence, the more positive R is, the more likely citizens are to vote.

According to Harder and Krosnick (2008), this equation set forth above illustrates the so-called "paradox of voting" (p. 526). The paradox of voting holds that, "Voting yields benefits only when supported by collective action, so most people should never pay the costs because their effort will never ensure the acquisition of benefits" (Harder & Krosnick, 2008, p. 526).

The results of a study by Incantalupo (2015) identified a relationship between unemployment and voter turnout. Based on his analysis of the effects of unemployment on voter turnout, Incantalupo (2015) reports that, "The economic and social contexts in which [voters] experience unemployment structure the ways in which their economic situations influence their political behavior" (p. 3). Interestingly, the results of this study identified a negative relationship on voter turnout levels and low unemployment rates and a positive relationship between voter turnout levels and high unemployment levels (Incantalupo, 2015). In this regard, Incantalupo (2015) adds that, "Broadly speaking, personal experience with involuntary unemployment is a mobilizing phenomenon that increases voter turnout in high-unemployment contexts and a demobilizing phenomenon that decreases voter turnout in low-unemployment contexts" (p. 3).

Voter...

For instance, according to Schur and Shields (2002), "The lower turnout is concentrated among people with disabilities who are not employed" (p. 167). These findings indicate that unemployment can adversely affect voter turnout levels due to decreased social capital and identification with mainstream society (Schur & Todd, 2002). In addition, Schur and Shields (2002) note that, "The findings also support the idea that general mobility and major life transitions can be important influences on voter turnout in general, and raise questions on the causal relations among age, employment, efficacy, and voter turnout that should be a focus of future research" (p. 168). Some of the other salient demographic factors that have been shown to affect voter turnout levels include the following:
Age -- People are more likely to vote as they progress from early adulthood (early 20s) through middle adulthood (mid 30s and 40s). However, after about the age of 75, voter participation decreases. This is due to the possibility that older citizens are more established in their communities, able to have more free time and are generally more interested in political outcomes compared to younger citizens. On the other hand, people aged 75 and above may vote less due to declines in physical health, mobility and energy levels.

Gender -- Though fewer women took part in the electoral process years ago than they currently do, women today have voted at the same rate as men and sometimes at even higher rates, due to increased political interests.

Education level -- People with more formal education are more likely to vote, due to the fact that education may impart the skills which enhance a person's ability to understand how the civic process works and how to navigate the requirements of registration. Education could also encourage people to vote by instilling civic duty, forcing them to become interested in the political process.

Race - Whites tend to vote at higher rates compared to other racial groups. Voter turnout rates among African-Americans are lower than that of whites, but has only increased recently due to relaxed discriminatory voter registration laws. They could have been inspired to vote as a result of dissatisfaction with their minority status. Asian-Americans also have lower voter turnout rates than whites, but Chinese, Vietnamese and Korean-Americans in particular have low registration and voter turnout rates, due to differences in the likelihood of registering.

Income - Wealthier people vote at higher rates. Less wealthy people have less time and resources available to learn about the electoral process when compared to wealthy people. Could also be due to the fact that more wealthy people perceive that they have a greater interest at stake in elections compared to the less wealthy.

Marital Status -- Married couples tend to vote at higher rates than single-parent households possibly because politically motivated people are able to inspire less motivated spouses, either through persuasion, or simply by exposing the spouse to political information. Such would not be the case in a single-parent household. Divorce greatly increases voter turnout rates since divorced people now have more free time to devote to learning about elections and politics in general.

Civic Duty -- Some people believe they have a moral obligation to participate in politics and are therefore more inclined to take part in elections. Similarly, those who believe that all citizens have the obligation to vote go to the polls more often than those who do not hold such a belief.

Trust -- People who can trust others are more likely to vote in an election. Distrustful people would think of the political system as corrupt, discouraging them from taking part in elections. However, there are exceptions when low levels of trust might inspire some to vote only if it minimizes the damage they might fear others could cause.

Voting in the United Kingdom

In the UK's parliamentary election, registered voters in every area of the country vote for a Member of Parliament (MP) to represent them in the House of Commons. The House of Commons is an elected body consisting of 650 members known as Members of Parliament (MPs). There are 650 geographical areas, which are called constituencies. An individual can vote in a UK parliamentary general election if that person is registered to vote and is:

Aged 18 years or over on polling day;

A UK citizen, Commonwealth citizen or a citizen of the Irish Republic; and,

Not legally excluded from voting.

The United Kingdom is currently divided into 650 parliamentary constituencies, each of which is represented by one Member of…