These contexts include: simple contexts, in which there is a clear cause-and-effect structure at work that is self-evident; complicated contexts, in which there are many right answers, but it is hard to ascertain them; complex contexts, in which there are no visible solutions (a dynamic in which there are "unknown unknowns"); and chaotic contexts, in which a leader is simply tasked with reducing the severity of a situation.
Over time, national security is faced with each of these contexts, and intelligence requires employing officials who are equipped with the requisite expertise to successfully target a given predicament.
In light of the many different tasks faced by national security, it is essential to have a Grand Strategy (or Statement of Purpose) that accounts for every aspect of national defense and steers the different compartments toward a unified direction.
An example of a unified direction can be seen in the War on Terrorism initiated by the United States in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The United States' national security realized that it needed to target weapons of mass destruction, which they defined as "nuclear, chemical, biological, or radiological weapons."
Four core goals were identified: fighting the enemy overseas, denying terrorists amnesty, preventing weapons of mass destruction from materializing, and spreading democracy. By arriving at a common objective (any giving themselves the freedom to later alter it), the United States utilized intelligence to achieve balance and efficiency with regard to its national security.
Intelligence thus plays a vital role in balancing the disparate elements of national security; intelligence allows a nation to establish coherent objectives and efficiently adapt to changing contexts.
References
Jackson, Brian a. "Marrying Prevention and Resiliency: Balancing Approaches to an Uncertain Terrorist Threat." RAND Homeland Security, 2008.
Perl, Raphael. "Combating Terrorism: The Challenge of Measuring Effectiveness." CRS Report for Congress, 2007.
Snowden, David J., & Boone, Mary E. "A Leader's Framework for Decision Making," Harvard Business Review, 2001.
Jay Chambers, "Combating Terrorism in a Globalized World," National War College (2002): 1-88.
"Combating Catastrophic Terror: A Security Strategy for the Nation," (2005): 1-12.
Raphael Perl, "Combating Terrorism: The Challenge of Measuring Effectiveness," CRS Report for Congress (2007): 1-12.
Brian a. Jackson, "Marrying Prevention and Resiliency: Balancing Approaches to an Uncertain Terrorist Threat," RAND Homeland Security (2008): 1-18.
"Combating Catastrophic Terror: A Security Strategy for the Nation," (2005): 1-21.
Snowden & Boone, "A Leader's Framework for Decision Making," Harvard Business Review (2001): 1-9.
Martha Crenshaw, "Terrorism, Strategies, and Grand Strategies." In Attacking Terrorism: Element of a Grand Strategy, ed. Audrey Kurth Cronin and James M. Ludes (Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2004):74-93.
Ibid. 7, 74.
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