Election Prediction

The most important swing states for the election are Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Ohio and Arizona could also be included in that mix. Trump won all six of these states in 2016. However, polls show these states as leaning to Biden or at the very least too close to call ahead of time. The states that are likely safest for Trump are Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Arizona. Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio nonetheless will be the battleground states: Florida represents 29 electoral college votes; Michigan 16; Ohio 18; and Pennsylvania 20. Arizona represents only 11 and Wisconsin only 10. So in a tight race, the four states with the larger electoral college votes are going to be the ones to matter most. Florida went to Bush in 2000 (perhaps thanks to some hanging chads) and again in 2004. The state then went to Obama and Biden in 2008. It went back to the Republicans in 2016 with Trump and Pence. One has to go back to 1992 before one sees an election in which the way Florida voted differed from the outcome of the national election. That year Florida went for Bush; yet Clinton won the Electoral College overall. Since 1996, Florida has predicted the winner correctly. Understanding Florida is really the key if the trend is to continue. But the other three key swing states are also worth considering.

The presidential approval rating in each of these four states is as follows:

1. Florida: 41%

2. Michigan: 40%

3. Pennsylvania: 42%

4. Ohio: 45%

Prior to Trump flipping Michigan in 2016, the state had not gone red in a presidential race since 1988. The same is true of Pennsylvania. Ohio has flipped between red and blue, with the Bushes taking it in 1988 and 2000/2004; but with Clinton and Obama taking it the other years. Trump won both in 2016 as well.

Florida has 5.3 million Hispanic voters and 3.2 million black voters out of a total population of 21 million. Michigan has .5 million Hispanic voters and 1.4 million black voters out of total population of 10 million. Ohio has .4 million Hispanic and 1.4 million blacks out of a population of 11.6 million. Pennsylvania has .9 million Hispanic and 1.3 million blacks out of a population of 12.8 million. Yet these figures are useless unless one is capable of interpreting what is going on in these particular demographics. That shall now be discussed in detail.

Although Biden is currently leading comfortably in the majority of the polls, some of the outliers, such as The Sunday Express/Democracy Institute or Trafalgar Groupwhich was the most accurate pollster in 2016 and 2018are predicting a much tighter race in 2020 (Manchester; Weidman). A recent a Wall Street Journal/NBC News Survey showed Biden with a 14-point leadjust weeks out from the election (Weidman). The question that Trafalgar Group has been asking, however, is whether the so-called shy Trump voters are a myth or a reality (Easley). In other words, are Trump supporters remaining quiet about their preference, and if so is there a way to tell? This question could help to shed light on how swing states, such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Arizonawith some pollsters even arguing that Georgia (right smack dab in the middle of the Bible Belt red south even flipping blue)might vote in November. These are the swing states whose voters are most likely to make the key difference if the race is indeed as tight as Trafalgar Group suggests. If, however, Bidens lead is as great as Real Clear Politics or NBCs polling suggests, it is undoubtedly too large a gap...

…concludes that this stat alone suggests that Trump will be picking up a lot more votes from minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016 (Rossi). On top of all this is the finding that 56% of Americans report being better off economically today than they were four years ago, a percentage that has not been reported since the 1980s when Reagan went on to win reelection (Rossi).

Independents are also likely to play a big part in this years election, as it is no longer just a matter of Republicans and Democrats: voters who do not align with either party still get to have a say in the election. Still, there are some other considerations to be made, such as these: New voter registration numbers are tilted heavily toward the Republican side, in some cases by 2 to 1 or more. The Trump campaign is also knocking on a million doors a week as opposed to the anemic Democrat ground game (Weidman). If Trumps team can mount enough enthusiasm to get out the vote in the coming weeks, the swing states may once again be where it all plays out. Trump narrowly defeated Clinton in 2016 thanks to a few thousand votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. In terms of competitiveness, the key swing states are largely a toss-up, with Ohio leaning conservative (with a Republican governor) and Florida leaning conservative (with a Republican governor). Michigan and Pennsylvania both have Democrat governorsbut has the lockdown influenced voters to push for Trump, who had demonstrated repeatedly that he wants to open up the nation?

Ohio

Michigan

Pennsylvania

Florida

Competitiveness

Leans Trump

Neutral

Leans Biden

Leans Trump

Party

R

D

D

R

Final analysis: The election will go to Trump with Republican victories in 3 out of 4 key swing states.

The threat to this model is, of course, that the shy Trump voter turns out to be nothing…