S. with these markets to exploit this opportunity. The military and offshore markets have also been identified by management as strong potential sources of growth in the UK.
Another opportunity is with new markets, which include arenas, zoos and other public facilities. This emerging market is relatively untapped, and its size somewhat undetermined, pending the creativity of the catering industry. There appears to be good opportunity for growth that involves the maintenance of traditional margins, if Compass can win first-mover advantages at each facility.
One other source of opportunity is in existing markets, even the mature ones. The industry in the UK still has many smaller competitors. Compass can compete with these firms on price, and also on the provision of ancillary services, which many of the smaller firms simply do not have the expertise, equipment or manpower to provide. This gives Compass the opportunity to win market share by simply outcompeting the smaller firms, or by acquiring them to gain their customers.
In the U.S., there are several key threats. The first is the stagnation in the core businesses of Business & Industry and Vending. These businesses amount to almost half of Compass' revenues but the markets have reached maturity. Margins are already tight, and 75% of the industry is contracted. The remaining non-contracting segment is viewed optimistically by management, but those customers who have not switched to a major institutional food provider may have good reasons for not doing so. It may be difficult to improve revenues in this sector going forward.
The U.S. market, for most businesses, has always been subject to intense competition. The three largest providers of institutional food service are all heavily active in North America. Sodexho has a dominant position in the education sector through the Marriott acquisition and Aramark is the dominant company in the market (Weinbeger, 2005). Those three companies, however, account for less than half of the total market. That share is growing, but there are also a number of smaller competitors who ultimately will be forced to compete on bases other than price. With price pressures from the two major competitors, a host of smaller competitors driving the service side, the U.S. market's competition level will test Compass in the years to come.
Another threat is that of oil prices. In the UK, the cost of transportation is not high, given the small size of the country. In the U.S., transport costs represent a significant threat, given the distances goods must travel between their place of production and end destination. Goods must be mass-produced and then distributed nationally, but this model requires low transport costs. A significant rise in fuel prices will cut into, or erode entirely, Compass' margins.
There are a couple of key opportunities. Health care is pre-eminent among them. The U.S. was subject to one of the world's largest baby booms, and those boomers are entering their senior years. An extrapolation of demographic trends indicates the demand for nursing homes will continue to increase for years to come. This is the strongest growth sector available in North America, representing significant opportunity for Compass.
The other opportunity is margin increase. The U.S. still has room for growth in many key markets. The U.S. has many more potential suppliers than does the UK. Compass is growing. Put together, this creates a climate where Compass has stronger power relative to its suppliers than it enjoys in the UK. Yet, there remains a gap between the margins in the two countries. There appears to be opportunity, and management agrees, to increase margins in the U.S. And help close that gap.
Q3. The UK is the most troublesome market for Compass. It is the second-largest for the company, but suffers from major structural problems - stagnant revenues, declining margins and limited opportunity. For the time being, Compass can consider their B&I business to be going nowhere and leave it be. For management's plans and optimism, the ever-declining margins in the UK, led by this sector, are a burden on shareholder value. In lieu of finding a way to staunch the bleeding, Compass should look at avenues to divest itself of this business. They should instead focus their resources on areas with opportunity, in particular health care. This market still has growth potential, and the UK still generates better margins than does the U.S. For the time being. The major risk to this strategy is that it undermines management's view that economies of scale can help to restore profitability....
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