Thus, Saudi Arabia is caught between a short-run dependency on oil that has it opposing tight restrictions on oil consumption, but has a long-run interest in moving away from the oil economy, something that will only be forced by decreasing oil revenues.
There are indications that Saudi Arabia is willing to be flexible in negotiations. It is unlikely that the country would accept limits on its own consumption of fossil fuels, because of its economic dependence on oil, high unemployment and the need to diversify its economy. However, despite OPEC's posturing, it is highly unlikely that Kyoto or any subsequent protocol would have a negative impact on the country's earnings from oil. The main reason is that a decrease in sales to Western regions will be made up for with sales to India, China and other growth regions that for some reason have been excluded from Kyoto.
Saudi Arabia's main trading partners are major energy consumers: Japan, China, the United States, South Korea, India and Singapore (CIA World Factbook, 2011). These nations in general are not the most supportive of Kyoto restrictions, and some of them like China and India are allowed to pollute at will. Most of these nations are working against improvements to climate change policies because of their dependence on oil consumption. They are also some of the most powerful countries in the world, and have a strong influence on climate change negotiations.
Politically, Saudi Arabia sees itself as a leader in the Arab world, and works closely with other Arab nations on policy. Most of these nations have outlooks similar to Saudi Arabia's, and these nations often form a bloc when dealing with international issues. Saudi Arabia is a key member of OPEC, which also works as a bloc, especially on issues that impact oil...
Saudi Arabia's level of influence, therefore, is high.
Conclusion
Saudi Arabia has some incentive to participate in climate change reduction, but the country is unlikely to see much environmental damage. Thus, while the country is a signatory to Kyoto, it has few obligations under it and actively resists the idea that oil consumption should be reduced. Saudi's more pressing concerns -- lack of water and high youth unemployment -- are problems it will need oil money to solve. As a result, Saudi Arabia's position will likely be to attempt to moderate the controls on oil consumption. The country may be willing to accept reduced oil consumption from Western nations if some of its major trade partners like India and China remain excluded from controls that would limit their consumption growth. In addition, Saudi Arabia is mostly likely to seek some form of protections against any pollution controls on its own economy, since the country requires significant economic development in order to diversify away from oil dependency and to address its youth unemployment issue.
Works Cited:
CIA World Factbook: Saudi Arabia. (2011). Retrieved November 21, 2011 from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sa.html
Morgan, G. (2011). Youth unemployment the kindling the fuels unrest. Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 21, 2011 from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/gwyn-morgan/youth-unemployment-the-kindling-that-fuels-unrest/article2161624/print/
Daya, A. (2011). Saudis say OPEC is asked to pay more than fair share on climate action. Bloomberg. Retrieved November 21, 2011 from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-21/saudis-say-opec-asked-to-pay-more-than-fair-share-on-climate-1-.html
