Risks of Climate Change
THE RISK OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPLICATIONS FOR ARCHITECTS AND ENGINEERS
Climate Change Impacts on Engineering Infrastructure
Key Impacts on Water and Resources
Risk Management Analysis Coping Methods Possibility And Probability
Theories
Recommendations And Guidelines For The Vulnerability Of Climate
Change Impacts Using Risk Management Methods And Analysis
THE RISK OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPLICATIONS FOR ARCHITECTS AND ENGINEERS
This work examines climate change in relation to impacts upon infrastructure, utilities, and water in relation to the affects from projected sea level rise, flooding, and other related impacts expected to result from climate change. This work also reviews models used for risk assessment and analysis and examines their usefulness and the associated limitations with these models. Knowledge and expertise is growing in the risk-assessment and analysis field of study and reliable models are being developed although the primary effective and appropriate use for the majority of these models is on regional or local scale.
THE RISK OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPLICATIONS FOR ARCHITECTS AND ENGINEERS
OBJECTIVE
The objective of this work is to examine the architectural and engineering identification of the vulnerability of climate change risks in relation to engineering design and infrastructure planning. This work will apply risk management methods in this area.
INTRODUCTION
Adaptation is the word that Australia has applied to the coming problems and complications associated with climate change and building structures in terms of architecture and engineering design in its National Climate Change and Adaptation Framework report. While the debate continues as to whether climate change is in reality occurring, the change in the climate, continues and at a rate much faster than scientists previously believed the change would proceed according to their initial reports. A September 10th report on ABC News website this year related that during the period between September 3 through September 9-69,000 square miles of artic ice disappeared, roughly the size of the Sunshine State..." Or the state of Florida in the Southern United States. The report states that the melting is at an unprecedented rate and that "...ice researchers worry that the Artic is on track to be completely ice-free much earlier than pervious research and climate models have suggested." (Sandell, 2007) Weather patterns, according to Robert Correll, scientist and chair for the Artic Climate Impact Assessment, are shifting and will continue to shift "in ways that we are just beginning to understand." (Sandell, 2007) The risks because of the rising sea levels resulting from melting in the artic are being forecast in many places of the world. According to an ABC News report September 9th of this year, the Jakobshavn glacier and ice fjord at Ilulissat are reported by scientists to be "pouring out some 20 million tons of frozen water into the ocean every day." (Blakemore, 2007) A recent Science and Technology report published by the University of Maryland states that: "A first of its kind study by the University of Maryland, Tufts and Boston Universities demonstrates that in coming decades, sea level rise, changes in rainfall and other effects of climate change will have major, costly impacts on infrastructure systems of cities around the world." (University of Maryland, 2005)
I. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ENGINEERING INFRASTRUCTURE
There will be substantial impact upon structural engineering and architectural designs including homes, businesses, bridges, dam, and other structures worldwide due to climate change. Australia's "National Climate Change Adaptation Framework" states specifically that: "Infrastructure such as buildings, roads, bridges, railways and ports are designed for a life of 20-50 years. Dams can be designed for a 100 years life. Planning decisions for development and the replacement or refurbishment of long-lived infrastructure need to take account of the different climate in the future including higher temperatures and changes to precipitation, water tables and humidity." (nd) The exposure of people and infrastructure to affects of climate change are likely to increase, due to the increase in urbanization in areas along the coast and urban expansion in regional areas. (National Climate Change Adaptation Framework, nd; paraphrased) Variables that have been identified important for consideration in relation to climate change include: (1) extreme maximum temperature and length of hot spells; (2) annual rainfall; (3) extreme daily rainfall, influencing flood levels; (4) available moisture, which is influenced by changes to evaporation rates and levels of rainfall; (5) average relative humidity; (6) variation in wet and dry spells, affecting water tables and surface and subsoil inundation cycles; (7) intensity of extreme winds; (8) fire-weather frequency and intensity; (9) solar radiation levels and exposure; and (10) sea-level rise. (Climate Change and Infrastructure: Planning Ahead, 2005) The following chart lists the infrastructure type and the climate change impacts expected to affect each of the infrastructures listed.
Climate Change Impacts
Source: Climate Change and Infrastructure: Planning Ahead (2005)
Specific high risks associated with the 'high' climate change scenario for the year 2030 include the following risks and to the sectors as listed in the following figure.
Sector and High Risks in Climate Change
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