This would be only natural for central bankers, as wealth effects may be a very relevant factor in determining fluctuations in aggregate demand. Studies on wealth effects have been conducted in recent years, also in the Bank of Italy, making use of household surveys. For a given level of net worth, the wealth effect may be defined as the extent to which household consumption changes in response to a change in asset prices relative to the general consumer price level. Conceptually, this is no different from the old Pigou effect, but while that worked through changes in consumer prices that reduced the "value" of money balances in real terms, we now have asset prices rather than consumer prices as the main factor. While consumer prices may be relatively stable, asset prices could move substantially, and the wealth effect could actually be a destabilizing rather than, as was once thought, a stabilizing factor." (2007) This results in a question of whether a "substantial drop in the relative price of houses might have a significant negative effect on aggregate demand." (Visco, 2007)
IV. GLOBAL CORPORATE TRUST REPORT
Reverse mortgages (RM) are stated to have once been considered "the sole province of poor retirees, a last resort for individuals without adequate retirement savings. How the market is shifting in a way that may portend bigger things to come. RMs are fast becoming the financial tool of choice for house-rich but cash-poor seniors. Prior to RMs, retirees could only access home equity by selling or by taking a home equity loan. With the recent real estate downturn, selling has become a less palatable option." (Global Corporate Trust, 2008) Over 300,000 reverse mortgages are stated to have been originated "during the past five years." (Global Corporate Trust, 2008) This only represents however, approximately "1% market penetration" and it is estimated by the National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association (NRMLA) that "80% of seniors own their homes and hold about $4.3 trillion in untapped home equity." (Global Corporate Trust, 2008) it is predicted that reverse mortgages will grow substantially in the future because of "demographic trends..." illustrated in the "pending global retirement of the post-World War II baby boomer generation." (Global Corporate Trust, 2008) it is reported that the Bank of New York Mellon 'has been building a sophisticated end-to-end RM platform to support origination and securitization by government-sponsored entities (GSEs) and the private market. This platform, currently being developed in the United States, may eventually be rolled out worldwide as RM-type products take hold in other graying nations." (Global Corporate Trust, 2008) Specific demographic trends are stated among the world's population to be as shown in the following chart labeled figure 4 in this study.
Demographic Trends Among the World's Aging Population
Source: Global Corporate Trust, 2008
It is additionally reported that Italy's over-60 population is approximately 39% of the total population in Italy and by 2025 "more than a third of the U.K.'s population will be over age 55." (Global Corporate Trust, 2008) in fact it is held by experts that "such population shifts will severely strain social insurance programs at the very time seniors will be most dependent on them. McKinsey & Company predicts these trends will create significant downward pressure on household savings and financial wealth accumulation." (Global Corporate Trust, 2008) While presently legislation for reverse mortgages is under consideration in Spain, the United Kingdom has established "home reversion programs [that] allow a homeowner to sell an equity interest in the home in exchange for an equivalent percentage of cash." (Global Corporate Trust, 2008) in the case where the owner sells the full equity of the home the homeowner is allowed to "remain in the home rent free until relocation or death." (Global Corporate Trust, 2008) it is related that a report by Defaqto in "April 2007, "noted that a combination of underfunded pensions, low annuity rates, demographics and pensioner debt, along with high levels of equity in housing stock, will make equity release in the U.K. An important retirement planning alternative." (Global Corporate Trust, 2008) Facts stated concerning the nature of the reverse mortgage as having importance as a tool in financial and estate planning which "coincides with the services provided by many diversified financial institutions" include the following:
Long-term care (LTC). About 60% of people over age 65 will require LTC care during their lifetimes, according to the National Clearinghouse for Long-Term Care Information. RMs could fund a long-term care policy or be used to meet out-of pocket LTC expenses;
Medigap. A Medigap policy is health insurance sold by private insurance companies to fill gaps in the original Medicare Plan coverage....
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