Politics
As was expected, the Republicans took the House and Senate in the 2014 mid-term elections, shifting the balance of power in the United States government. The election was viewed by many as a referendum on President Obama's policies. The President said it (Martosko, 2014), conservative talking heads said it (Krauthammer, 2014), and voters in exit polls said as much, too (Raedle, 2014). This argument makes for fine political rhetoric, this ignores the fact that Obama ran for re-election in 2012. The ACA had been passed but nobody had seen its benefits yet, only heard the fearmongering. The economy was going nowhere fast in 2012, versus two strong quarters in 2014, and the unemployment rate has been declining for four straight years. If there was a time when a referendum on Obama's policies was going to cost him, it would have been in 2012, not the 2014 midterms. Unless of course it was a way to punish the President without having to actually elect a Republican to the White House.
So what was the cause of the results in the 2014 midterms? Was it a referendum on Obama's policies, or is that just smoke? The broad trends show Democratic strength in Presidential elections going forward, but the Electoral College is not the same thing as Congressional elections, and mid-terms are different from Presidential elections. With those realities in mind, this paper will examine some of the drivers of the recent patterns of elections.
Demographics
The first issue is with demographics, because there are different patterns in who votes in mid-terms vs. who votes in Presidential elections. Turnout is far lower, and it is lower among groups who typically vote Democrat. In 2008, 46% of voters were between 18-44, and they voted heavily in favor of Obama. In the 2014 midterms, they accounted for 32% of the electorate. This represents millions of voters who skew heavily Democratic staying home, and the result on the mid-term results was predictable. Older voters, 54% of the electorate in 2012, were 67% of the electorate in 2014 (Judis, 2014).
This is just raw numbers, and does not take into account race, wherein Democratic voters also stayed home. While Obama not only carried upwards of 90% of the African-American vote, he also mobilized African-Americans to vote. Normally, African-Americas are among the most disenfranchised of all groups in America, but they made a point to vote for Obama, and that took other Democrats along with him. Not only was there no black President on the bill, but many Democratic candidates were shying away from associations with Obama and his policies. Whatever they were thinking, it failed miserably.
Referendum?
Judis (2014) argued that many voters in the midterms -- who already skew Republican -- were taking the opportunity to proclaim their vote against his policies. Judis argues that the number of people with this sentiment was higher in 2014 than in 2010, but there is a flaw in his reasoning. In 2010, there were more Democrats with legitimate chances at winning. Gerrymandering all but took the Democrats off the ballot in most of the 2014 votes, so in many cases there was little point to Democratic voters showing up. Judis also compares this with 2006, and 1994, and in this makes a good point that among voters who show up for mid-terms, many do see the mid-term as an opportunity to cast a ballot against the sitting President.
Judis (2014) also notes that Obama's strategy of staying out of the midterm fight essentially allowed the Republicans to dictate the way that his policies would be perceived. He was seen by many as being weak, not fighting for his policies. Moreover, Obama on the sidelines meant that many African-Americans and young people did as well -- Obama's personal popularity among these groups does not rub off on other Democrats unless he makes a point to promote such associations. For the most part, these candidates ran scared from Obama's policies, which only made matters worse for them. It was a stupid policy, one obviously doomed to fail, and it failed.
The policies that were seen as a referendum were among the following. Judis (2014) cited the rollout of Obamacare; Krauthammer (2014) the shrill fearmongering about stuff like ISIS and Ebola, and the threat of terrorism (Edsall, 2014). Democratic candidates seemed to cower from the ACA as well. It may be easy to be cynical about an electorate that is so economically illiterate it actually thinks Republicans will do a better job on the budget deficit (Edsall, 2014), but rollout of a software...
Our semester plans gives you unlimited, unrestricted access to our entire library of resources —writing tools, guides, example essays, tutorials, class notes, and more.
Get Started Now