A quasi-experimental design was used by Chermack & Kim (2008) to explore the effect of scenario planning on decision-making styles. It was found hat participants in scenario planning have a tendency to make a mental shift towards intuitive-based decision-making styles after their participation in the scenario planning process. This study used a limited sample from a single company. However, the study demonstrates that this might be an area of interest for future studies. It examined the effect of the scenario planning process on individuals, rather than on the firm as a whole. This study was unique in its approach to scenario planning. A majority of the studies found in this literature review approached scenario planning from the standpoint of the entire organization and its affects on the business. This study demonstrated that scenario planning has an effect on the individual, as well as the organization.
The Chermack & Kim study suggests that future research attention needs to be placed on the effects of scenario planning on the individual. The effects of scenario planning demonstrated in this study indicate that the scenario planning process had an effect on changes in business culture and methods. As the individuals within the organization changed, so did their perspective on business strategy. The shifts in thinking that were discovered during this study suggest that scenario planning might have caused a fundamental shift in the organization and the way in which they manage strategy in the future.
Scenario planning is used in an number of applications and industries. Much of the literature focused on scenario planning from a financial standpoint. However, scenario planning can be applied to almost any field. For instance, scenario planning has been applied to the future electricity supply in Indonesia. This scenario planning episode attempted to forecast future demand by observing past trends and then developing scenarios based on those trends. However, it was found that this method of scenario planning fails to include future uncertainties. In order to consider future uncertainties, the scenario must rely less on past experiences. It must be willing to make long-term projections (Rachnatullah, Aye, & Fuller, 2007). This study supports the idea that all scenario planning methods are not the same and that some might be more successful in some scenarios than others.
Not every scenario planning method will work in all circumstances. Some methods might be more successful in certain business climates than in others. The Indonesian electricity example demonstrated the need to rely on past experiences to forecast the future, but it also demonstrates that past experiences are not adequate to make long-term predictions in the future. Although many scenario planning sessions follow the standard form discussed in the first section of this literature review, situations can be found in the literature that require a different type of scenario planning methodology.
Cares & Miskel, (2007) also found that nontraditional scenario planning methods have been developed for use in complicated strategic situations. The authors mention that strategic games are played on the highest level of the U.S. Department of Defense as a method of scenario planning. These war games require teams to move and countermove, with each move representing a time projection into the future. These games represent a form of coevolutionary scenario planning. This form of scenario planning brings in the element of how various factions might react in a competitive environment. The results of this process do not always produce a strategy, but they give the individuals an understanding of how the others might react in a competitive environment.
The studies by Cares & Miskel, as well as that by Rachnatullah, Aye, & Fullter bring up an important point in scenario planning. It is important to formulate contingency plans, but these are not actual predictors of the future. The situations that businesses will face are reactionary. Scenario planning can help to develop ideas that might be used when a certain situation arises, but seldom are the actual situations similar to those that were rehearsed. The general plan might remain the same, but the contingencies must be flexible and able to adapt as the situation changes.
The war game strategy in scenario planning brings in the element of competition. The Rachnatullah, Aye, & Fullter example stressed the importance of relying on the past. Another example from the area of accounting, finance and management focuses on the design of a knowledge-based system that can be used in strategic planning. This example stems from the European Airline industry. In this example several strategies were developed. These resulted in several sound recommendation and rational strategic reasoning....
Research Article ChartCriteria and Defining CharacteristicsArticle 1:Islam, N. S., Kwon, S. C., Wyatt, L. C., Ruddock, C., Horowitz, C. R., Devia, C., & Trinh-Shevrin, C. (2015). Disparities in Diabetes Management in Asian Americans in New York City Compared with Other Racial/Ethnic Minority Groups.�American Journal of Public Health,�105S443-S446.doi:10.2105/AJPH.2014.302523Article 2:Islam, N., Zanowiak, J., Wyatt, L., Chun, K., Lee, L., Kwon, S., & Trinh-Shevrin, C. (2013). A Randomized-Controlled, Pilot Intervention on Diabetes Prevention
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