Mod 4 Case
For instance, suppose Sam Smoothtalk thinks about accepting the 300 unit offer at $295 per unit. Suppose the company who makes the offer is willing to sign an agreement to buy 300 units each month. That means that the probability quotient is 1 (the sale is a sure thing). Suppose that Sam thinks that the probability of such an offer being available each month is roughly 50%. If he tells Mr. Pecos about his opinion and Mr. Pecos (after eventually consulting the controller, Mr. Ledger) arrives to the same conclusion), then the probability factor would be 0.5. Therefore, the number of units that might be sold is:
300 (units) X 12 (months) X 0.5 (the probability factor) = 1,800 (units per year)
Add that to the initial estimate (10,000 at the beginning of the year and 11,000 after the first month) and you get 11,800 and 12,800, respectively. Compare the price from the distributor with the one on the page 1 table and you get a criterion for making a financially sound decision.
Since there is no way of estimating the probability factor, I will go with 0.7 (70%) for all salesmen, although that might not be very accurate.
Old Rule (Minimum price = $300)
New estimated number (units*12*0.7+10,000)
Offer
(per unit)
Number of Units
Accepted?
Sam Smoothtalk
New minimum price
Offer No. 1
Offer No. 2
Offer No. 3 $295-300 No 12,520 $291 Yes Harry Hustler
Offer No. 1
Offer No. 2
Offer No. 3
Offer No. 4
Gary Giftofgab
Offer No. 1
Offer No. 2
Offer No. 3
The offer made to Ms. Goodperson was not included since Ms. Goodperson is not a salesperson, so the probability factor is 0 or almost 0.
4) as for recommendations for Mr. Pecos, I would advise rewarding the salesmen for their effort by giving them something more than a fixed salary. As for his decision to fire Ms. Goodperson, perhaps it would have been wiser to transfer...
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