Verified Document

Numerical Modeling Multiple Chapters

Tsunami Numerical Modeling Tsunami Modeling

Tsunamis, along with other massive natural disaster events such as earthquakes, hurricanes and so forth, represent one of the most (if not the most) destructive natural disaster event that has occurred in the past or that could occur in the future. They typically coincide with earthquakes in a given area but accurately predicting and projecting when they will occur, when they will not occur and the methods of predicting both has become a fairly chaotic and fickle endeavor. However, the use of computer and numerical-based modeling has represented a shift in that it can more accurately predict what will or will not occur when earthquakes and other conditions relative to tsunamis occur and avail themselves to geologists, oceanic experts and other scientists that are the least bit involved in predicting tsunamis and warning the populace around the world about the same. After explaining the data sources and methods, this repot will cover how to predict and account for damage scenarios, the areas of the world that tsunamis typically occur in, what happens when tsunamis make landfall, what patterns have become clear over time, what areas are more vulnerable than others, and particular tsunami events in the past, mostly in the 1950's, that have illuminated the subject quite effectively.

Materials & Methods

The materials and methods to be used for this brief literature review, methodology and results/discussion treatise are fairly basic. Of course, the main topic at hand is tsunami and the "drill down" on the subject has been and will be on how numerical models can be used to explain why things happened a certain way in the past and how that data can be used to predict similar events or close calls in the future. The materials used include ten different professional or peer-reviewed journals that relate specifically to modelling of tsunami prediction and handling, historical analysis, future predictions or a combination of the three. After assessing the ten sources, there will be a synthesis of what was reviewed and the relevant points that can or perhaps should be captured from the material.

Results

There was a nasty tsunami in 1956 that affected the area of Greece. One of the ten articles reviewed for this literature review and results summary reflect that the disaster was recorded and assessed from nearby Yafo, Israel. This was far from the first such event in that area as there were 300 descriptions of tsunamis or at least something very similar over the decades and centuries. Of course, scientific standards and measurement methods were paltry or were not even attempted back in the 1950's and before. However, this does not mean that something cannot or should not be learned from those experiences. Frustratingly, most of the accounts that were ever offered were based on simple eye-witness accounts and little to anything else. Even so, the fishing buoy gauges that existed at the time reflected that Yafo and nearby Greece got creamed by a tsunami in 1956. The tsunami started at 0900 hours local time in Israel and lasted about twelve to fifteen minutes (Beisel et al., 2008). The Greek account of the same event yielded similar results. The tsunami was ostensibly the result of an earthquake and caused swells of thirty, twenty and ten meters in height. Updating modeling since then has relocated the epicenter and genesis of the earthquake that led to the tsunami and has led to a modeling crafted after the fact even though the event was more than half a century ago and before modern scientific methods were or could be employed (Okal et al., 2009).
Tsunami modeling of any sort, numerical or otherwise, is not remotely an exact science yet but the hotspots and the amount of warning time involved is fairly clear. One such hotspot can be found in the eastern Corinth Gulf along the Perachora Fault in the area of Greece, the same area just mentioned in the prior paragraph (Tselentis et al., 2006). Further, the "hotspots" in question have been so for many centuries or even multiple millennia. For example, it is commonly held that the Greece area has been a hotbed of tsunamis for more than 3,500 years. While the…

Sources used in this document:
Of course, simple mathematics and numbers are sometimes hard to correlate to real life and it could somehow come down more to odds, probability or likelihood rather than whether it will definitely happen or not. However, this could change over the coming decades as data becomes less anecdotal and non-scientific and more science-based (Papadopoulos et al., 2007). Over time, scenarios and guesses will become more concrete through better modeling and prior data that is more completely collected and observed (Tinti et al., 2011).

Numerical & Computer Models

As for analysis, compare and contrast of the models themselves, there are several models and tables in the previous ten mentioned sources that give a good deal of information. For example, the Okal treatise, in its first table, shows relocation results and published magnitude for a combination of dates and latitude/longitude points. Most of the results are benign but there are several bursts of major activity such as on July 9th, 1956, July 30th, 1956 and on late 1956 from October to December. The rows with published magnitudes reflect figures that are all at least five but get as high as nearly eight with the aforementioned 1956 earthquake/tsunami being the apex. Figure 2 of the Okal report shows clusters of high activity that show where the "hot spots" are including due south of Anafi and right on top of Anafi being the two major ones. Figure 6 shows three different charts with a different directional pathway being applicable for each one. In order, they were up/down, east/west and north/south. For each chart, the peak points of activity were roughly the same but reflect that all three directional pathways should be assessed and looked both separately and in concert. For example, about three fourths of the way through the graphs (from left to right), there is a pattern whereas a spike happens in North/South, then East/West and then Up/down in sequential fashion. They happen very close together but not at the same
Cite this Document:
Copy Bibliography Citation

Related Documents

History of CNC Computer Numerical
Words: 5340 Length: 18 Document Type: Research Paper

Michael Cooley (1972) has suggested that the drawing office has been downgraded in importance as a result of the finer division of labor in engineering that began in the 1930s. He described how the creative design element had become increasingly separated from the work of executing drawings. The fragmentation of shop floor jobs was, according to Cooley, paralleled by fragmentation of the job of the designer/drafter. Until the 1930s, drafters

Decision Modeling Inferential Statistics
Words: 2286 Length: 4 Document Type: Essay

Inferential Statistics: Decision Modeling Decision Modeling: Inferential Statistics Decision models are important components of inferential statistics. They are crucial in helping researchers choose the most appropriate statistical test to use for their study. This text presents the various steps involved in decision modeling, and uses two studies to demonstrate how such models can be used to guide the decision on what test to use. Decision Models in Inferential Statistics Decision models play a crucial

Fire Modeling to Prevent Fires and Mitigate Damages
Words: 1570 Length: 5 Document Type: Research Paper

Modeling Fire Behavior for Prevention and MitigationToday, a wide array of sophisticated computer-based algorithms provide fire investigators, fire protection engineers and risk management professionals with the ability to model fire behaviors that can help prevent fires in the first place and mitigate the human casualties and property damage they cause in the event that prevention fails. To learn more about these valuable technological resources, the purpose of this paper is

Competency Modeling and Job Analysis to Select
Words: 2270 Length: 6 Document Type: Essay

competency modeling and job analysis to select suitable candidates for different positions in the organization has increased the effectiveness of the recruitment and hiring process. The two processes make it easier for human resource practitioners to determine the best competencies for a particular position and make use of assessment strategies and instruments that will choose a candidate that is fit for the position. However, to be effective, assessment strategies

Predictive Modeling to Ascertain Student Achievement
Words: 870 Length: 3 Document Type: Term Paper

Building and Assumptions Use the Best Subsets approach to refine the predictive models constructed using multiple linear regression Employ techniques (including residual analysis) to test the assumptions of predictive models obtained through multiple linear regression The core of predictive modeling is the search for useful predictors. Prediction is centered on a problem that is defined by the size of the data set (the number of cases or observations) and the number or

Wind Load Rapid Urbanization Coupled
Words: 3104 Length: 11 Document Type: Research Paper

This effect is particularly important for structures on the boundary of different topographical features, such as those in Chicago, which sits next to Lake Michigan and thus feels the brunt of wind sweeping in from across the surface of the water while at the same time feeling the effects of the polar jet stream, or Los Angeles, which is positioned between the ocean and a range of tall mountains

Sign Up for Unlimited Study Help

Our semester plans gives you unlimited, unrestricted access to our entire library of resources —writing tools, guides, example essays, tutorials, class notes, and more.

Get Started Now