NUCLEAR-RELATED CASE STUDY

Nuclear-Related Case Study: North Korea

Background

Koreas nuclear development and the subsequent nuclear weapons possession could be traced back to the mid-50s (Pardo, 2019). A few years later, as Pardo (2019) further indicates, at the 4th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea held in September 1961, Kim Il Sung urged the government to pursue research and development for the peaceful use of nuclear power (187). The utilization of nuclear power for peaceful purposes was restated and pursued, i.e. via the establishment of the Atomic Energy Research Institute, and nuclear research and development efforts scaled up over the next two decades. It was not until the mid-90s that the development of nuclear weapons became fully embraced as a defense approach under the guidance of Kim Jong-II (Pardo, 2019). This, as the author further points out, was followed by enhanced nuclear weapon development efforts with the establishment of the Military Industrial Department (which was formerly the Workers Party of Korea machinery division).

Over time, the U.S. and its partners have attempted to negotiate with North Korea so as to convince the country to halt its missile and nuclear development program. It is important to note that although there have been indications of progress in denuclearization efforts at various moments, no tangible results have been realized on this front. According to Gray and Lee (2021), some of the strategies that have been pursued towards this end are inclusive of, but they are not limited to; military cooperation with U.S. allies in the region, wide-ranging sanctions, and non-proliferation mechanisms such as export controls... diplomatic initiatives to have North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons efforts in return for aid (197). The country continues to wave the nuclear weapons card in what could be translated as not only efforts to advance its interests on the regional and international fronts, but also maintain its leaders grip on power on the domestic front. It should also be noted that a law recently adopted by Korea Peoples Assembly further expands the scenarios under which the country would deploy its nuclear weapons (Congressional Research Service CRS, 2023). More specifically, the said law permits a first use course of action if in its estimate, the survival of the regime is threatened (CSR, 2023). At present, it is estimated by various experts - that the isolated countrys nuclear arsenal stands at approximately 40-50 warheads (Herskovitz, 2022).

Cognitive Biases

a) Locking on One Alternative

There are a number of cognitive biases that impact (or have in the past...

When it comes to the second bias, i.e. relying on the past, the United States could overcome the said bias by coming to terms with the fact that the world is a dynamic place and factors or circumstances that may have governed events in the past could have shifted. More specifically, the US should embrace a proactive as opposed to a reactive approach to the problem.

Recommendation to Policy Makers

As a policy advisor, my number one recommendation to the policy maker(s) in this case would be for the United States (and its international partners and allies) to guarantee North Korea of its safety and offer enhanced incentives for the said country to abandon its nuclear weapons plan. Safety guarantees could in this case be offered by way of halting US-South Korea joint military drills or any other engagement that could be translated by North Korea as being a threat to its national security. Further, efforts should be made to demonstrate to North Korea what it stands to gain if it abandons its nuclear program and becoming a member of the international community. There may be need to ensure that these efforts are mediated or spearheaded…