Public Opinion on the War in Iraq

Background

The research question for this paper was: "What is the public opinion over the war in Iraq during the last few administrations as well as the public opinion on the president handling in pulling troops out of Iraq." To answer this question, the Roper iPoll database was consulted, with a keyword search of war in Iraq from the years 2002 to 2022. Some background on the war in Iraq is helpful for understanding the context of the data taken from these polls.

Public opinion on the war in Iraq has been highly divided and has changed over time. Initially, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, a large majority of Americans supported the decision to invade Iraq, with the belief that Saddam Hussein posed a threat to national security. However, as the war dragged on and the lack of weapons of mass destruction was discovered, support for the war declined significantly (Pew Research, 2008; Voeten & Brewer, 2006).

During the Obama administration, a majority of Americans believed that the war was not worth fighting and wanted a swift withdrawal of troops. However, there were also concerns about the potential destabilization of the region and the rise of extremist groups like ISIS if U.S. forces were to leave too soon.

During the Trump administration, public opinion on the war in Iraq remained mixed, with some Americans supporting the decision to withdraw troops and others expressing concern about the potential for a resurgence of extremist groups in the region.

Overall, public opinion on the handling of the war in Iraq and the withdrawal of troops is highly dependent on political beliefs and individual experiences. Some viewed it as a necessary step towards bringing stability to the region, while others believe it was a mistake from the outset and question the wisdom of continued involvement.

Public Opinion on This Matter

Topline data on this matter indicates that from 2008 at the end of the Bush Administration through the Obama Administration and into the Trump Administration in 2017, Americans views on the Iraq War largely receded into the background amid other issues. In 2008, it was first and foremost in the minds of voters (ABC News/Washington Post, 2008). However, by 2017, only 1% of Americans considered Iraq to be of much concern at all (CNN, 2017). The topline data is supported by Pew Research, too. For instance, public opinion on the Iraq War indicates that the majority of Americans felt it was the right decision in 2003 (Pew Research, 2008). By the time of the 2008 election, however, the Iraq War was the most important issue to voters who seemingly wanted a change of approach, with the majority of Americans now regretting the war (ABC News/Washington Post, 2008; Pew Research, 2008). All of this data taken together shows a dramatic shift in public opinion on this topicfrom overwhelming approval in 2003 to majority opposition in 2008 to apparent indifference in 2017. The war does span a generation, and this too could have an impact on attitudes.

Graph 1. Iraq War as Biggest Issue.

In terms of what is known about American public opinion about foreign policy overall, these polls line up well with whatever the big issues of the day were. In 2008, Iraq was a big issue and voters saw the election as a referendum on the Bush Administrations approach to the war. However, as little changed under Obama, Americans lost interest and focused on other things like health care (another big issue during the Obama Administration). It is helpful to see what the topline data says, however, to get a fuller picture of opinion on this matter.

A 2017 CNN survey asked the question What one issue do you feel is the most important issue facing the country today? Only 2% of respondents answered War, and only 1% answered terrorism in Iraq. By 2017, most Americans probably had no idea that any troops still remained in Iraq, based on this response. In fact, the biggest issue for Americans was healthcare (24%)not surprising considering that Obamacare (as the Affordable Care ActACAwas called) was somewhat unpopular with Americans, and Donald Trump had run on the platform of (among other things) dismantling the ACA.

This finding was down from 2015, when 6% of respondents to a CBS News Survey (2015) answered that the most important problem facing the US at that time was ISIS in Iraq/Syria.

However, a Gallup survey (2014) from the prior year showed only 1% of respondents concerned specifically about the war in Iraq. A 2013 survey from 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair showed that out of all the wars in American history, only 5% of respondents believed the 2003 Iraq War was the most necessary. 33% chose WW2, and 23% chose the Revolutionary War. This suggests that in big scheme of things, Americans feltat least by 2013that Iraq was not that important in terms of Americas place and honor.

Graph 2. Which war is most important.

Over this short span of five years, one thus sees a very small percentage of Americans overall having any concern for the Iraq war. Across two administrations (Obama to Trump) the concern was negligiblealmost as though soldiers in Iraq were no longer on Americans minds.

It was a much different situation for voters in 2008, when they were asked in an ABC News/Washington Post survey, Is there one other issue that's nearl as important (in your choice for President in 2008)? 20% of respondents cited the Iraq war as the most importantmore than any other issue in fact. By that point, of course, as Pew Research (2008) pointed out, Americans had become more disillusioned with the war: from a high of 72% of the population supporting the invasion of Iraq in 2003 as the right decision, by 2008 only 38% of Americans still felt it was the right decision. Those thinking it was the wrong decision had grown from 22% in 2003 to 54% in 2008. Clearly, some had come to believe that the invasion (based on the idea of Hussein having weapons of mass destruction) had been poorly conceived. Thus, it is not surprising to find that for voters in 2008, the biggest issue was the Iraq War: the majority of people regretted the USs presence in Iraq by that point. The Bush doctrine had not succeeded with the people, who had been initially motivated by 9/11 to actto do somethinganythingto show some kind of opposition to terrorism and get some retribution for the fall...

…(as happened under the Obama Administration, which redirected attention away from Iraq to domestic matters), and, as always, political ideology (Iyengar & Westwood, 2015; Spencer & Wood, 2014). Despite differences of opinion, most Americans seem to support the idea of a foreign policy that prioritizes national security, protects American interests, and promotes stability and democracy abroad (Liberman & Skitka, 2019). That is probably why the majority of Americans supported the war in 2003; i.e., there was bipartisan feeling that the war was the right decision (Pew Research, 2008). Once the patriotic feeling dissipated after 9/11 and no WMDs were found in Iraq, Independents began to ask more questions and criticize. It got to the point in 2008, where the war was the most important issue to voters. Democrats and Independents were more willing to hold the presidential office accountable than Republicans, however, in 2006 (Voeten & Brewer, 2006). And by the time of the Trump Administration, almost no one seemed to care anymore about it.

The Purposeful Model of Public Opinion

In the context of this data, the Purposeful Model of Public Opinion suggested by Page and Bouton in their book "The Foreign Policy Disconnect" seems appropriate to assess American attitudes about US foreign policy. The model proposes that public opinion is not shaped by a passive response to information, but rather by a more active and purposeful engagement with foreign policy issues. In other words, individuals are not simply responding to external stimuli, but are actively shaping their views based on their own goals, interests, and values.

In the case of the War in Iraq, it is clear that individuals were actively shaping their views based on their own beliefs and values, as well as their perceptions of the costs and benefits of the war. While the Purposeful Model provides a useful framework for understanding American attitudes about foreign policy, it is important to note that other factors, such as media coverage, political messaging, and historical context, also play a role in shaping public opinion.

Thus, the Purposeful Model of Public Opinion offers a useful framework for understanding American attitudes about US foreign policy, but it is important to recognize that public opinion is shaped by a complex interplay of individual, institutional, and situational factors. Media coverage can greatly affect attitudesand, for instance, in 2003 when media coverage was overwhelmingly positive about the Iraq invasion it is not surprising to find that the vast majority of Americans supported the war (Donovan et al., 2020; Javed & Hashmi, 2021). It is only when media outlets began to show differing perspectives that partisan politics entered into the arena, and Independents also began shifting their opinions. Plus, there were domestic issues to think about: such as the 2008 global financial crisis, which seriously brought attention home from where it was abroad, and the healthcare issue.

Conclusion

Overall, there is some alignment in how Americans view foreign policy based on the Purposeful Model of Public Opinion and engagement. However, there are other issues that can shape public opinionsuch as patriotism, media coverage, domestic issues (or lack thereof), and so on. Partisan politics and ideology will play a part in shaping those views at times, but so too will the level of engagement that people have in…