Intelligence Analysis

Primary Intelligence Problem

1. A recent wave of terrorism in Egypt is threatening the stability of the central government. What does this mean?

Sub-problems, associated PIRs/EEIs, and Methods of Intelligence Analysis

What form of terrorism? Whats its origin and intention? (PIR-1)

Method: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) would be the most appropriate method for examining this sub-problem. ACH is an intelligence analysis method that has proven highly effective when examining huge amount of data (Heuer, 1999). This technique is commonly used to identify alternative explanations (hypotheses) and examine evidence to confirm or refute the hypotheses (U.S. Government, 2009). For this sub-problem, ACH would enable intelligence analysts to assess and develop probable identification of the new terrorist threat. It would help provide more guidance on how the terrorist regime conducts its operations, its ideologies, and intent.

What are the lifestyles of individuals in this new wave of terrorism?

Method: Predictive analysis in which the analyst determines behavioral trends of individuals in the new terrorist regime through evaluating data obtained using research and intelligence. The identification of behavioral patterns helps the analyst to determine what these individuals are doing on a daily basis and how they are likely to threaten or attack the central government.

What are the probable weaknesses of leaders in this new wave of terrorism?

Method: Opportunity analysis would be utilized to examine the weaknesses associated with leaders of the new terrorist group. This analysis would help to determine vulnerabilities of these leaders by examining their personalities and lifestyles. From the assessment, the intelligence analyst will determine ways for exploiting these weaknesses as a means for combatting their terrorist activities.

What are the capabilities of this group in conducting terror activities in the area and their probable impact? (PIR-2)

Method: High-impact/Low Probability Analysis. This technique would be utilized by the intelligence analyst to examine the past and current operational effectiveness of the terrorist group. The analysis technique is also suitable because it will help determine the how and if the terrorist regime can affect Egypts central government.

What are the tactics, techniques, and procedures employed by this new wave of terrorism?

Method: Predictive analysis. The assessment of tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) employed by the new wave of terrorism helps to determine how organized the group is. This will provide information regarding the structure and rules employed by the terrorist group for their activities. The analysis should also be carried out to keep track of any modifications of tactics, techniques, and procedures. From the assessment, the analyst helps to develop suitable counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency measures for thwarting the operations and activities of the terrorist group.

What are the locals views of this new terrorism regime and their activities? (PIR-3)

Methods: Key Assumptions Check and Content Analysis. The views of the local populace regarding the new terrorism regime and its activities/operations requires assessment of key assumptions. Key Assumptions Check is an intelligence analysis technique that helps to articulate and review key assumptions by the intelligence team/individual as well as the local populace. For this case, the intelligence analysis team should collect information from the local media or consult with locals. Content Analysis is a method that helps to evaluate the true meaning and feelings of the locals toward the terrorist regime. This in turn helps to evaluate and determine the locals reactions to the terrorism regime and identification of probable friendly forces in the local population.

What are the recruitment efforts used by the terrorist regime? Do these efforts involve recruiting locals? How successful are they?

Method: Content Analysis. This technique is employed to determine the recruitment initiatives used by the organization and whether the recruitment efforts entail enlisting locals. This would help provide insider knowledge regarding the tactics, techniques, and procedures of the new terrorism regime. The information obtained from this process would be utilized to develop a more effective counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism plan for defeating the new regime.

What is the perception of Egyptian government leaders on this terrorism threat? (PIR-4)

Method: Red Team Analysis. This intelligence analysis technique will help in gathering information and trends regarding the behavioral model employed by leaders of the Egyptian government toward this terrorism threat. The determination of the behavioral model provides crucial information regarding how the Egyptian government would react to this threat.

Does the Egyptian government have a plan to combat the threat?

Method: Alternative Futures Analysis. This technique enables the intelligence analyst to determine the probable measures and alternatives the Egyptian government can use to combat the threat.

Primary Intelligence Problem

2. Oil prices have spiked and Chinese companies have obtained operations and engineering contracts in multiple Persian Gulf states. What is the likelihood of Chinese intervention in the Persian Gulf to ensure the supply of oil to China?

Sub-problems, associated PIRs/EEIs, and Methods of Intelligence Analysis

What kinds of operations and engineering contracts have been established between China and multiple Persian Gulf states? Whats the intention of these contracts? (PIR-1)

Method: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). This method would help to determine the kinds of operations and engineering contracts between China and these states. This determination will in turn provide further guidance on potential hypotheses for the intentions behinds these contracts. An understanding of these intentions will help to determine the possibility of Chinese intervenion in the Persian Gulf for constant oil supply to China. From this assessment, the intelligence analyst can begin to determine the nature of relations and agreements between China and Persian Gulf states.

What are the potential loopholes in these operations and engineering contracts?

Method: Predictive analysis. Through the use of this method, the intelligence individual or team will obtain information regarding potential weaknesses in these contracts that would provide the justification for Chinese intervention in Persian Gulf to ensure constant oil supply to the country. Predictive analysis helps the intelligence analyst to identify how China could have taken advantage of rising oil prices to create a framework for intervention in Persian Gulf states.

Are these contracts similar to those between China and other countries? Are they similar to contracts established between Persian Gulf states and other countries worldwide?

Method: Predictive analysis. From evaluating data obtained through research and intelligence, the analyst can identify the similarities and differences between these contracts and other past or current oil supply contracts. Through this method, the analyst will understand the potential motivations behind these contracts. Additionally, the analyst will understand the...

…develop another similar facility. The assessment of such plans would help to determine whether it was a nuclear facility as alleged by the Israelis. This would be determined by examining the type of building that is being developed to replicate the destroyed one and what activities will be carried out in the facility.

What were the responsibilities and duties of locals in the destroyed facility? (PIR-3)

Method: Content Analysis. Based on assumptions/hopes that the facility was destroyed during non-working hours to prevent mass casualties and collateral damage, this technique can be utilized to determine the job duties and responsibilities of the locals prior to the facilitys destruction. This process would entail consulting surviving local facility workers to determine the kind of activities they were engaged in in the facility. The information obtained from this process would enhance the accuracy and validity of determining the kind of the suspected nuclear facility before its destruction.

How will the destruction affect diplomacy and international relations efforts between Israel and Syria as well as other countries in the region? (PIR-4)

Method: Content Analysis. Through this method, the intelligence analyst will examine how Israeli, Syria and neighboring countries have reacted to the destruction and its impact on international relations and diplomacy. How have neighboring countries reacted to the destruction of the alleged nuclear facility? What is the impact of the destruction on relations between these states? Using content analysis, these questions can be answered through evaluating local media language and messaging regarding the official government perspectives toward the attack. The analysis would be carried out in relation to previous trends on relations between these neighboring states. This would help to determine the impact of the current non-proliferation measures adopted in this region.

How have local news in neighboring countries in this region portray depicted reactions to the destruction of the alleged nuclear facility in Syria?

Method: Content Analysis. Intelligence analyst would use this method to evaluate how the reactions of neighboring countries in this region have been portrayed by the local media. In this case, the analyst will primarily focus on local media portrayal of strikes that have ensured in the aftermath of Israelis destruction of the suspected nuclear facility in Syria. This would help shape the analysts understanding of how these neighboring countries plan to respond to the issue. The planned responses would in turn help understand the impact of the destruction on diplomacy and international relations efforts.

Have neighboring states changed their non-proliferation activities or efforts regarding actual/suspected nuclear facilities? (PIR-5)

Method: Indicators of Change. This method would be utilized to monitor any changes in handling of actual or suspected nuclear facilities in the region. The analyst would use this technique to assess and determine potential changes in measures adopted by countries in this region to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons and facilities. This process will provide significant insights regarding international relations, diplomacy and non-proliferation efforts in the region following Israelis destruction of the alleged nuclear facility in Syria.

How has the Israeli local media portrayed reactions by neighboring countries? (PIR-6)

Method: Content Analysis. This method would be used by the intelligence analyst to help determine Israels intentions for destroying the alleged nuclear…