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High Unemployment Rate In Detroit Research Paper

Using Microsoft Excel, a regression test was administered for each individual independent variable as it related to the dependent variable of general unemployment in Detroit. Data

Automotive Industry Employment rates in thousands

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

96.9

2009

79.5

86.6

86.2

85.4

77.2

73.4

73.5

80.5

84.3

83.9

82.8

83.9

81.4

2010

82.7

82.7

82.6

83.3

83.8

85.0

81.2

83.3

87.6

89.4

89.8

90.2

85.1

2011

89.4

90.4

91.2

93.1

93.4

94.1

83.3

92.0

94.7

96.3

96.7

97.4

92.7

2012

97.6

98.2

99.3

97.4

98.5

99.5

95.8

96.8

97.7

97.7(P)

P: Preliminary

(United States Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012)

Year

Period

labor force employment unemployment

OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.872748

R Square

0.761689

Adjusted R. Square

0.7319

Standard Error

1.573775

Observations

10

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

63.32986

63.32986

25.56956

0.000981

Residual

8

19.81414

2.476768

Total

9

83.144

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

18.60066

1.703969

10.91608

4.4E-06

14.6713

22.53002

14.6713

22.53002

X Variable 1

-0.14215

0.028112

-5.05663

0.000981

-0.20698

-0.07733

-0.20698

-0.07733

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation

Predicted Y

Residuals

Standard Residuals

1

6.432287

0.867713

0.584803

2

7.398934

1.201066

0.80947

3

Square
0.652338

Standard Error

Observations

3

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

1.35E+08

1.35E+08

4.752715

0.273788

Residual

1

28345534

28345534

Total

2

1.63E+08

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

170848.9

19965.3

8.557288

0.074059

-82834.4

424532.1

-82834.4

424532.1

X Variable 1

-1093.39

-2.18007

0.273788

-7466.07

-7466.07

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation

Predicted Y

Residuals

Standard Residuals

1

118365.9

-57.9129

-0.01538

2

132689.4

-3735.38

-0.99222

3

132470.7

1.007603

It is clear that there are significant factor that affect the unemployment rate. As predicted, the direct employment of the three major automakers has the biggest role in affecting unemployment. As the direct employment rate goes down, the unemployment rate increases. However, it was also shown that there is not a significant correlation between automaker profits rising and unemployment rates in the region going down. This is most likely explained because of the major outsourcing the three companies are doing, costing Detroit communities a rising unemployment level.

References

United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2012). Local area unemployment statistics: Detroit-Lionia-Dearborn. Databases, Tables, & Calculators by Subject. United States Department of Labor. Web. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUDV26198003?data_tool=XGtable

United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2012). Motor vehicle parts manufacturing. Databases, Tables, & Calculators by Subject: State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings. United States Department of Labor. Web. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU26000003133630001?data_tool=XGtable

Sources used in this document:
References

United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2012). Local area unemployment statistics: Detroit-Lionia-Dearborn. Databases, Tables, & Calculators by Subject. United States Department of Labor. Web. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUDV26198003?data_tool=XGtable

United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2012). Motor vehicle parts manufacturing. Databases, Tables, & Calculators by Subject: State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings. United States Department of Labor. Web. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU26000003133630001?data_tool=XGtable
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