Forecasting Techniques
Business decisions require accurate forecasting which takes into account the possible trends and twists in the economy and the society. One of the earliest accounts of forecasting can be found in the Bible when Joseph interpreted dreams and told people there would be seven years of harvest followed by seven years of drought. With careful forecasting, the Pharaoh and his people could prepare themselves for the latter period of adversity. While business experts may no longer rely on dreams or even hunches, they still engage in consistent forecasting with the help of current data, models, forecasting methods and various popular theories. Forecasting is thus an important part of business planning since business decision makers are more interested in formulating policies and strategies that are based on accurate information of current and future trends instead of randomly coming up with ideas and measures for the future.
Past is usually seen as a good and reliable indicator of future trends which means that business decision makers need to understand what happened in the past and how it affected the future then in order to carry the wisdom gained through past experiences into the future. Economic theories, indexes, sales data, current trends, consumer preferences, and even political situation may all impact the market and for this reason businessmen rely on forecasting techniques which are broadly divided into the categories of time frame and qualitative/quantitative.
Qualitative techniques of forecasting are now most highly in demand. They are used when there is no quantitative data available and are based on years of experience and expertise. They require services of experts and when this is accomplished, the forecasts produced can serve as an important guide for short-term planning. Some of the primary qualitative forecasting methods include executive committee, the Delphi method, market research, surveys of the sales force and customers.
Executive committee refers to the method whereby a group of employees is selected for the task of creating forecasts. These employees would then rely on input from all parts of the firm and even from outside the organization to create the most accurate forecast. This is a common forecasting technique which is used for development, expansion and planning of products and services, whether new or existing. This method comes with one disadvantage i.e. The degree of consensus may not be known. When employees work as a team, some of them are likely to dominate the entire process…
Uses of visualization in business analytics include market segmentation analysis and factor analysis to define new audience segments based on psychographics. Visualization is often also used for pricing analysis to determine how elasticity can vary by product and area being sold into. 6. What are the steps involved in effective decision making and how can business intelligence assist in helping executive and managers make better strategic and operational decisions? Effective decision
Strategic Planning in IT IT Impact on Service Industry Performance Cooperative Competitive Competitive Advantage Implementation of IT Innovations 1992 U.S. VALUE-ADDED AND EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH IN GDP PER HOUR, MAJOR SECTORS OF THE U.S. ECONOMY Management TASKS IN BUREAUCRACY VS ADHOCRACY ORGANIZATIONS This paper addresses the following problem statement: "Without information technology (IT), a business will not be able to compete globally in any industry, nor in any market it wants to enter. It will
This allows for greater levels of planning and cooperation, and fills in the information gap that currently exists between the factory floor and the rest of the supply chain. Lexmark provides an example of waste. Recently, the company found itself with more than $1 million in scrap from one lot. Engineers had insufficient information to isolate and fix the problem, so were instead relegated to crisis control. With more accurate
Business Management Supply chain management is a process conducted by several business entities, which involves planning, implementing and controlling any production and supply activities, with an aim of providing it to consumers in efficient ways. While supplying, there are intermediaries who play a role in connecting producers and consumers, who ensure efficiency in the supply chain too. Supply management is done to ensure collaboration between the intermediaries (Catholic Relief Services, 1999,
The distributor would as such be able to identify the new needs of the customers and the suppliers, and will be able to serve them in quick and efficient manner, by delivering results before the competition even becomes aware of the existence of the changes incurred. In other words, competitive advantages would be created (Royer, 2005). Within the longer term, a suggestion is made in the combination of qualitative
76). As automation increasingly assumes the more mundane and routine aspects of work of all types, Drucker was visionary in his assessment of how decisions would be made in the years to come. "In the future," said Drucker, "it was possible that all employment would be managerial in nature, and we would then have progressed from a society of labor to a society of management" (Witzel, p. 76). The
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