Forecasting Methods There are three basic forecasting methods namely the time series methods, the regression methods, and qualitative methods. Qualitative methods use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts. These methods are most commonly used in long-term strategic planning process bearing in mind there are individuals within an organization whose judgment and opinion are very integral in the running of search organizations (Brown, 1959). In fact their opinions count more than those of experts drawn from outside the organization. Quantitative methods make use of mathematical and statistical tools to capture and analyze information. They are used to measure and model outcomes, eliminating rogue results and other influences (Brown, 1959). Investment managers use quantitative methods to value different classes of securities, analyze criteria for guiding investment decisions, and measure risk and asset return. Quantitative methods are also used in calculating yields and prices, frequency distributions, and...
Consensus methods involve seeking expert opinion from more than one person (Brown, 1959). The opinions that have been elicited from the experts are subsequently synthesized and a final focus obtained. Consensus is normally arrived at by putting all experts in a room and letting them to argue their issues out. This methods major undoing is: it is controlled by individuals that have the best group interaction and persuasion skills (Hanke & Reitsch, 1992). Delphi Technique falls under the consensus methods. The technique normally seeks to rectify problems associated with face-to-face confrontation in the group. The technique proceeds in a well-defined sequence. The participants are first asked to write their predictions. Their responses are collated and a copy given to each participant. Participants' input is sought on…
The former might be, 'What specific...' [while] Less structure might be exemplified by: "Please respond to the following in your own words: I....'" (Dereshiwsky, 1999) in addition: adding some open-ended items such as these to a more traditionally scaled quantifiable survey, such as one with Likert-scaled attitudinal items, and/or "check/off" questions on demographic background variables, is a good way to make the survey "multimethod" in nature. This is because you'd
Internet has grown exponentially since its first introduction to the public. The precursor to the Internet was the ARPANET. The Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) of the Department of Defense (Carlitz and Zinga, 1997) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) were the primary creators of the ARPANET. Subsequently however, efforts from private entities and universities have helped develop the network infrastructure, as it exists today. "The goals of ARPA's
Behavioral Finance and Human Interaction a Study of the Decision-Making Processes Impacting Financial Markets Understanding the Stock Market Contrasting Financial Theories Flaws of the Efficient Market Hypothesis Financial Bubbles and Chaos The stock market's dominant theory, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been greatly criticized recently for its failure to account for human errors, heuristic bias, use of misinformation, psychological tendencies, in determining future expected performance and obtainable profits. Existing evidence indicates that past confidence in the
Results from the study by Petersen, Ragatz and Monczka show that effective collaborative planning depends on information quality, and the trust level firms share. The authors purport: "Collaborative planning activities between supply chain partners are expected to lead to better performing supply chains" (Petersen, Ragatz & Monczka, Introduction section ¶ 1). In addition, numerous other researchers have also explored the perception relating to supplier alliances, that enhanced collaborative planning
76). As automation increasingly assumes the more mundane and routine aspects of work of all types, Drucker was visionary in his assessment of how decisions would be made in the years to come. "In the future," said Drucker, "it was possible that all employment would be managerial in nature, and we would then have progressed from a society of labor to a society of management" (Witzel, p. 76). The
forward discount in predicting exchange rate modifications. The conclusion of the literature review is that the forward discount is a biased predictor and that are two possible explanations for this situation. One cause would be the presence of a time varying risk premium, and the other the failure of agents to make rational expectations (the inability to use all available information in an efficient manner). The forward discount puzzle (as
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