Black & Decker
Forecasts
Since the merger with Stanley, Black and Decker has seen a steady increase in its revenues, gross profit and net income. The different elements of the new company are still being integrated, underperforming divisions are being shed, and synergies between the different components are still being developed. As the company continues to make internal improvements, it can expect that it will continue to grow both its top and bottom lines. It is reasonable to expect that over the next 2-3 years, ongoing internal improvements will help to improve margins, all other factors being equal. The post-merger improvements in the percentage of SGA expenses to revenue should continue in the short-run, albeit at a slower pace. Likewise, internal factors are likely to be responsible for at least a modest growth in income, as marketing synergies in particular emerge.
External factors are also critical to the forecast. The company expects to continue its strong growth overseas, in particular the double-digit growth in Asia, Europe and Latin America. In addition, the forecast for the U.S. housing market and economy overall is moderately positive going forward. The Congressional Budget Office was predicting a recession given the "fiscal cliff," but averting that change in fiscal policy to some extent preserves an earlier forecast of slow GDP gains in the 2-3% range for the coming years. It is important to remember, however, that much of Black & Decker's product line is sold for the construction of new homes or the renovation of old ones. The state of the housing market, therefore, is critical to the forecasting process. In 2012, the U.S. housing market had its best year since 2006 and the expectation is that this trend will continue. As a result, Black & Decker's revenue gains may well be better than the gains in the general economy. Such a prediction also fits well with the volatility implied in the company's beta of 1.48. With this information, an assumption of revenue increases of 3.5% growth over the next five years is not unreasonable. The company is assumed to have the capability to continue to lower its expenses as a percentage of revenue, but the assumption will be that current rates will hold. It is also assumed that the post-merger tax rates will hold, as will the post-merger capital structure.
The following performance measures outline the forecast for Black & Decker over the coming five years (and including the 2011 fiscal year as a reference point):
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
2011
2012
2013
2014
The above figures show that the company is on the right track with respect to growing revenues faster than growing costs. These results will allow it to boost its operating and net incomes, and therefore should also result in dollar value increases in equities, even with slight increases in debt to maintain the current capital structure. There are no major changes expected with respect to the company's solvency or liquidity ratios. The figures show that the performance of the company is expected to improve over the next five years. If strong growth overseas continues, and the long-term growth in the U.S. housing market materializes as expected, both the return on assets and the return on equity should improve steadily over this time period, making the gains resulting from the merger more…
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