Modeling Fire Behavior for Prevention and Mitigation

Today, a wide array of sophisticated computer-based algorithms provide fire investigators, fire protection engineers and risk management professionals with the ability to model fire behaviors that can help prevent fires in the first place and mitigate the human casualties and property damage they cause in the event that prevention fails. To learn more about these valuable technological resources, the purpose of this paper is to identify appropriate computational models for simulating fire spread, predicting fire behavior, and informing emergency response strategies. The paper introduces the topic with an overview of fire modeling, following by a discussion concerning how these methods can prevent fires and help mitigate the damage they cause in the event the prevention fails. Following this review, the paper presents a summary of findings that emerged from the research in the conclusion.

Overview of Fire Modeling

Fires pose a significant threat to society and safety, with a staggering 135,000 reported incidents occurring globally each day, according to the World Fire Statistics Center in 2020 (Cabl and Manescau 2020). These events have far-reaching consequences, severely impacting human lives and well-being. They contribute to massive air pollution levels, exacerbate carbon emissions, and lead to the irreplaceable destruction of natural and cultural treasures. In the face of the ongoing climate crisis, it has become imperative to devise and implement comprehensive preventive strategies and protective measures to combat the life-threatening dangers of fire effectively (Cabl and Manescau).

As the term connotes, fire modeling is a method that seeks to predict how fires start and what fires may do in any given situation. For instance, according to Aumond (2024), Fire modeling is a computational technique used to simulate and predict the behavior of fires in various environments involv[ing] the application of mathematical equations and computer algorithms to replicate the complex physical and chemical processes that occur during a fire (4). Some of the most widely used and recently developed fire modeling applications at present include those created in collaboration with the Fire Research Division of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) as follows:

Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). This application is a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of fire-driven fluid flow. The software solves numerically a form of the Navier-Stokes equations appropriate for low-speed, thermally-driven flow, with an emphasis on smoke and heat transport from fires (Fire Modeling Programs 2024, 4). This validated application is currently the most widely used for fire suppression analyses (Bellas et al. 2020).

Consolidated Model of Fire and Smoke Transport (CFAST). This application is a two-zone fire model used to calculate the evolving distribution of smoke, fire gases and temperature throughout compartments of a building during a fire (Fire Modeling Programs 2024, 4).

Pyrosim. This application is a graphical user interface for the FDS software, designed to facilitate the creation, simulation and analysis of fire scenarios in buildings and other structures (Aumond 2023, 10).

Beyond the foregoing recent additions, the NIST also maintains a comprehensive listing of other fire modeling applications with proven efficacy, including specialty areas such as calculating temperatures and positions of hot smoke layers in confined spaces, effective elevator...

Finally, and perhaps even more importantly, fire modeling can identify the optimal positions for fire suppression systems to ensure the most efficacious deployment and application of these resources. For example, a study by Bellas et al. (2020) successfully used the above-described FDS application to simulate obstructed and exposed pool and spray fires with diesel oil and heptane in ships, both of which are defined by the International Maritime Organization as fire suppression scenarios to evaluate the efficacy of modeling in fire extinguishing times. In this regard, Bellas and his associates emphasize that, In general, a good agreement in compartment temperature evolution and fire extinguishing time is found for the modeled fire scenarios. The results support the application of FDS in a performance-based design approach for the design of water mist fire extinguishing systems for machinery spaces in ships (1352).

Conclusion

The research showed that fire modeling is a computational technique that simulates and predicts fire behavior, enabling fire prevention and mitigation strategies. By accounting for factors such as fuel sources, weather, terrain, and building materials, these models provide insights into fire dynamics. Fire modeling allows experts to identify high-risk areas, develop evacuation plans, optimize resource placement, and design fire-resistant structures. These models also guide wildland fire management, controlled burns, and firefighting resource deployment. Likewise, fire modeling can improve fire codes, safety system effectiveness, and firefighter training. In cases where fires occur, modeling helps mitigate damage by identifying optimal egress paths, signage locations, and suppression system positioning. In sum, fire modeling is a powerful tool for enhancing fire safety, protecting lives and property, and minimizing environmental…