Verified Document

Fed's Options During The Great Recession Essay

Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Money Supply Policy Options at the Beginning of the Great Recession

money supply in October of 2008 was $1.4573 trillion, but by December of the same year it had reached $1.6038 trillion. By comparison, the prime interest rate declined from 4.56 to 3.61% during the same period. The slope and y-intercept of the line is -6.2914 and 13.7284, respectively, which allows a calculation of expected interest rates for any value of money supply. In the figure to the right, MS1 is $1.52 trillion dollars and the expected interest rate would be 4.166%, but if money supply increased to $1.57 trillion (MS2) the prime interest rate would be expected to decline to 3.851%, assuming inflation remains constant.

For the same period, gross domestic investment decreased from $3.0816 to $2.8917 trillion as the bank prime interest rate declined from 4.56 to 3.61%. The slope and y-intercept for this line is 5.002 and -10.856, respectively. As...

Normally, a decline in interest rates would drive an increase in investment. The data presented here reveals the absence of a causal relationship between interest rates and investment demand, which would be consistent with investors exiting the market. This period represents the very beginning of the Great Recession.
Under normal circumstances, the Federal Reserve would attempt to increase the money supply to lower interest rates, thereby spurring investment and an increase in GDP. Between October and December 2008, the consumer price index and the real GDP were in a freefall. The short-term aggregate supply line has a slope of 0.080062 and a y-intercept of -0.19741. During this period, real GDP would be predicted to grow $68.8 billion for every $100 billion of investment. This is shown in the figure to the right, where ADo represents…

Sources used in this document:
The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) represents the change in consumer consumption as income changes. Between October and December 2008, consumption went from $9.9748 to $9.7369 billion and income declined from $11.0084 to $10.8587 trillion. The change in consumption was -- $0.2379 billion and the change in income was -- $149.7 billion; therefore, MPC = -- 0.2379 / -- 149.7 = -- 0.0015891. The multiplier would be 1/(1 -- MPC) = 1/(1 -- 0.0015891) = 1.001591. For a $169 billion increase in GDP this would amount to only $270 million dollars, an amount that would not be visible on the above graphs.

Conclusions

Based on the above analysis, using open market operations to implement an expansionary monetary policy would probably not work very well given that falling interest rates have had no effect on investment rates. The Federal Reserve could begin purchasing U.S. treasuries to increase money supply, which would be expected to further lower interest rates; however, it seems unlikely that this would stimulate investment given the data presented here. The second step would be to encourage discount lending to troubled banks, which would effectively increase the money supply. The Fed could implement the 'nuclear option' by lowering the reserve requirement. Given the corrupt lending policies that caused the Great Recession, lowering the reserve requirement would be equivalent to throwing gasoline on a fire. It would have the effect of increasing the money supply, but it seems unlikely that the banks would use this money to make more loans.
Cite this Document:
Copy Bibliography Citation

Related Documents

Real Options Theory in the
Words: 1336 Length: 5 Document Type: Term Paper

Different theorists and proponents of real options theory identify different specifics of the theories operation, but in one widely held view there are five real options: the waiting-to-invest option, the growth option, the flexibility option, the exit option and the learning option (Wade 2005). Each one of these options takes in a different value given other environmental and internal considerations, and from the plotted valuations of these real options more

Current Crisis Impacted Financial Market Real Economy Everyday Lives...
Words: 3675 Length: 14 Document Type: Essay

Recession Effect of the recession on upon financial market, the real economy and over everyday lives Recession is defined as the economic slowdown or decline characterized by slowing down of trade, a magnitude decline in the GDP, and a decrease in employment usually lasting between 6 months to a year. This was the situation in the U.S.A. The hardest times being from 2008 through 2009 and the early months of 2010.

Economic Crisis Policies US Current Economic Crisis
Words: 2366 Length: 8 Document Type: Research Paper

Economic Crisis Policies US current economic crisis is considered to be started from real estate sector. The real sector started to decline in 2006 and it accelerated in 2007 and 2008. Housing prices have fallen from the peak from about 25% so far. The decline in prices left homeowners with no option and they were unable to refinance their mortgages and causes default of mortgages. This default of mortgages and loans

Conducting International Banking Research
Words: 3478 Length: 12 Document Type: Research Proposal

International Banking Quantitative Study Introduction The purpose of this quantitative study is to assess the confidence levels of members of the international banking community with respect to the sector’s ability to weather another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009 following the collapse of sub-prime in the U.S. and a tidal wave of leveraged defaults across the global banking sector which only found relief through central banking intervention (Haitsma, Unalmis &

Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Economic Fluctuations
Words: 1360 Length: 4 Document Type: Research Paper

economic situation in the United States is favorable compared with five years ago. Five years ago, it was late 2009 and in the depths of the Great Recession, so performing better than those levels is no great achievement. But as a point of comparison, all metrics are better today. The annualized rate of GDP increase in the third quarter of 2014 was 3.9%, down from 4.6% in the second

U.S. Economy the May 2007 Economy Presented
Words: 870 Length: 3 Document Type: Essay

U.S. Economy The May 2007 economy presented a rosy picture: the lowest unemployment rate of the Bush Administration 4.4% (Bureau of Labor Statistics.gov. 2012. PP. 1), the peak of housing values, strong GDP growth of 3.6% (Trading Economics.com. 2012. PP. 1), a stable inflation rate of 2.2% (Trading Economics.com. 2012. PP. 1), and a normalized non-emergency FED Funds of 5.25% (Moneycafe.com. 2012. PP. 1). Yet, the collapse was imminent as the

Sign Up for Unlimited Study Help

Our semester plans gives you unlimited, unrestricted access to our entire library of resources —writing tools, guides, example essays, tutorials, class notes, and more.

Get Started Now