Still there exists a number of financial analysis those study the past trend of stock prices and the trend in trading volume as an effort to generate profit. Such technical analysis is viewed by Efficient Market Hypothesis as not effective in forecasting the variations in the fluctuations of future prices. The semi-strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis reflects that all openly available information is already integrated into the asset prices. Speaking other way, all openly available market information is completely reflected in the current price of the securities.
The public information depicted not only the past prices but also includes the data published in the financial statements of the company, the declarations made in the company, economic and others factors. It also specifies that none is capable of outperforming the market with utilization of the information that everybody knows. This ensures that the financial statements of the company are not considered to be of much use in predicting the future trends of price fluctuations and securing high investment returns. The strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis specifies that the private information or insider information is rapidly integrated into the market prices and therefore is not utilized to gather abnormal trading profits. Similarly, all information irrespective of public or private is fully reproduced in the prevailing market price of the securities.
This implies that the insider that is the management of the company even is not capable of taking advantage from the information they retain. They are not able to take the benefits of availing the latest information such as the decisions made just ten minutes ago so as to effectively make profit. The underlying principle behind the hypothesis is that the market predictions are unprejudiced. Therefore, the information is integrated and assessed into the market price in much more purposefully and enlightening way than the insiders in the management itself retains. An extension of the Efficient Market Hypothesis is seen in the random walk model which upheld the truism that the markets can never be persistently crashed, making the arbitration impossible and the 'free lunches' are generally unavailable. [Efficient Market Hypothesis]
The strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis indicates that the securities prices integrate all the available information. It is, however, quite evident that the insiders those in the management have enough scope to benefit in terms of higher profits from the available trading on information not yet incorporated into the market prices. Seyhun, therefore, viewed that the strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis cannot exist amidst real world phenomenon which can not be considered as unprivileged. Efforts have also made to include the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the current research analysis, incorporating the tests of market efficiency. The extension of the concept of the weak form was visualized by Fama in 1991 for incorporating predictions future returns with the use of accounting or macro-economic variables However, widespread differences of opinion prevails on the magnitude of market efficiency. This is further aggravated by the problem of joint hypothesis.
The evaluation of market efficiency involves an asset pricing model. If the trend is against the market efficiency it is inferred that either the market is inefficient or it may be that the model is quite erroneous. Ample research findings have been advanced to substantiate the inefficiencies involved in the model making the efficacy of the model suspicious. However, among all these three forms of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the semi-strong form of Efficiency Market Hypothesis is considered to constitute the fundamental basis of the most of the empirical studies. The semi-strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis assumes that the security prices incorporate all the openly available information. There exist no undervalued or overvalued securities that obvert the trading rules to influence for superior returns. A release of new information is completely integrated into the price rapidly. The advent of the updated information facilitated evaluation that has evidenced profound influences over the stock prices instantaneously. [the Efficient Market Hypothesis on Trial: A Survey]
The Efficient Market Hypothesis infers that none can outperform the market on the basis of the security selection or through market timing. It is seen that the Efficient Market Hypothesis involves many negative inferences that influence the investment strategies considerably. Normally the influence of Efficient Market Hypothesis can be perceived in two directions. Firstly it is from the investor's perspective. The past trend with regard to the price and volume...
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