Economic Development
Economic Impacts of Tekopora - Theory
The Tekopora program was launched in 2005 to provide cash payments, as a means of help low income Paraguayans escape poverty. Basic economic analysis suggests the following outcome expectations are reasonable, in the areas of per capita income, consumption, poverty reduction and school attendance. It should be expected that per capita income and consumption would both increase. The reason for this is simple. As a cash transfer, Tekopora is just putting money into the hands of the recipients, which inherently increases their ability to spend. That alone should see an increase in per capita consumption.
Flowing from that, Tekopora should also result in an increase in overall per capita income in the country. However, that effect should be much lower. The reasons is simple -- Tekopora is not a big program. The program initially served 4500 households, with payments ranging between $18-36 depending on the number of children in the family. Thus, Tekopora began life as a program around $1.5 million per year. While the program has expanded, this number is nowhere near big enough to significantly impact the per capita income of Paraguay. The GDP in 2005 was $30.9 billion, or $4,900 per capita (Library of Congress, 2005). Adding $1.5 million onto that would add around $5 to the country's per capita earnings. Thus, the impact is better to the measured on just the people who received payments, to remove the effects of the country's major trade and industrial drivers. By understanding the impacts on the recipients, it will be easier to understand the multiplier effect that the program has on earnings.
The predicted effect on poverty reduction is that it would have a significant effect. In 2005, the percentage...
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