PMESII-White Paper
Introduction
The United States has long been an important partner of Pakistan, providing essential economic and military assistance. However, in recent years the relationship has become strained, due in part to Pakistan's failure to adequately tackle the problem of terrorism within its borders. This paper describes the operating environment in Pakistan, the desired end state and problem frame, as well as the whole of government course of action for the United Statesconsisting primarily of the provision of essential services, economic/infrastructure investment and development, and regional security. It concludes with an assessment of potential risks.
Description of the Operating Environment
Pakistan has faced many challenges in recent years, including terrorism, economic instability, and environmental problems. However, the country remains an important player in the region and on the global stage. The economy is struggling, and unemployment is high. Pakistan also faces significant demographic challenges. Over 60% of the population is under the age of 25, and the population is expected to grow to over 400 million by 2050. It is turning more towards China as a result so as to be part of the Belt/Road Initiative and Chinas multipolar model. This rapidly growing population puts strain on already limited resources, and has led to increased social tensions.
It is believed by some Pakistani leaders that programs such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will lead to economic growth for both countries while reversing the current Pakistan energy crisis. This form of cooperation from China (financially assisting a developing country) aligns with Chinas reputation for being an economic predator and enabler of authoritarian forms of government. The current interaction between the two countries directly challenges US strategic interestsspecifically, resist those who believe autocracy is the best way forward, that democracy is essential for meeting the challenges of a changing world and look for opportunities to invest in the development of countries to reduce the likelihood of instability.
Desired End State and Problem Frame
The desired end state for the Pakistani environment is one of stable but complex international relationships, where the country can navigate its own interests while also managing the expectations and demands of multiple external actors, while giving primacy of place to the US. On the military front, Pakistan must possess a strong ability to defend its borders against existential threats, while also keeping a close eye on internal instability. Internal demographics should be supportive of a large workforce that can drive economic growth, but also self-sufficient so as to not put unwanted pressures on social services and infrastructure. The culture of Pakistan should embrace diversity and be open to Western cultural values. Its international relations should be marked by deference to the demands of the US.
The problem is due to social, economic, political and geopolitical tension, Pakistan lacks a stable environment that gives primacy of place to US influence/ideals; instead, domestic actors (Taliban) and foreign actors (China) have gained ground in Pakistan. In order for the U.S. to meet one of the national priorities set forth in the NSS, engagement in Pakistan...
…groups in an effort to reduce violence and instability in the region. These are just a few of the many objectives and actions the US can take in Pakistan with regard to regional security.Risk
One risk is that by seeking to influence social, economic and political arenas in Pakistan, some terror groups may push back and recruit still more heavily. Some political leaders may also see an opportunity to leverage US overtures against China to secure more investment or support from the East. Mitigation steps should include clauses in contracts to abandon all financial/economic/infrastructural development plans with China.
Conclusions
Politically, populism is spreading across Pakistan and adding to the historical polarization between the political and middle/low classes and between ethnic/religious groups. The US has reduced foreign aid to Pakistanan opportunity quickly leveraged by China when they partnered with Pakistan to improve a decaying Pakistan infrastructure. Pakistan has been mired with decades of internal political conflict between its civilian and military governments. Part of this has been driven by perceived threats from abroad as well as governmental, bureaucratic, and industrial corruption. This situation has led to low levels of foreign investment, under employment, and poor infrastructure Moreover, the current state puts Pakistan at an inflection point at which it has the potential to stabilize or to devolve into a civil-military crisis. The US should seek to shore up relations with Pakistan so as to stabilize the country and win it away from Chinese influenceby providing essential services, supporting economic/infrastructural development, and enhancing regional security.
Pakistan's ISI: 'A Kingdom Within a Kingdom'? Pakistan is one of the indispensable allies of the United States in the war on terror, especially in the current struggle against Taliban and other extremist movements in Central Asia. But the American relationship with Pakistan has remained precarious, partly because of the shadowy activities of Pakistan's main intelligence service the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI). According to Sean Winchell, until the Pakistani general and the
In addition the continued decline of the fiscal account will affect both debt sustainability and external balances ("Monetary Policy Decision"). As it pertains to medium term fiscal sustainability which must be present to achieve necessary overall macroeconomic stability, the tax-GDP ratio must be increased ("Monetary Policy Decision"). Additionally government expenditures must decrease ("Monetary Policy Decision"). The article also reports that the revenue deficit, which represents the difference between total revenues
S. In Pakistan, especially in the border areas. Any attacks by the U.S. forces inside Pakistan, which would invariably entail "collateral damage," are likely to fuel further anti-Americanism. The current policy of Musharraf to seek co-operation of the local tribal chiefs in the border areas against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda should be supported by the U.S. A political, rather than a purely military solution to the problem, is the only
Pakistan ISI and GWOT Described variously as a U.S. ally in the war against terror, Pakistan's actual commitment to the U.S. As a reliable partner in the global campaign against terror has in the past come under scrutiny with some accusing the South Asian State of aiding militants in the region. Matters have been made worse by the latent support the U.S. has received from the ISI, the state's foremost national
Foreigners wishing to travel in large parts of the country are required to take along a government-appointed armed guard. Pakistan's numerous intelligence agencies are a brooding, malevolent presence in the nation's life. President Musharraf has survived a couple of assassination attempts (the first in December of 2003, when Musharraf's convoy was attacked twice within two weeks. The second one, on Christmas Day, left 14 people dead and dozens injured).
McQueen's research in 1990 demonstrates just how little progress has been made. McQueen noted in 1990 that, "Pakistan has had consistent growth averaging 6.7% over the last decade, placing it among the fast-growing third-world economies. Some apprehension exists regarding deterioration in the law and order situation in Sindh Province, where in recent months ethnic and politically motivated violence has claimed a number of lives and slowed industrial activity. Regionalism, ethnic
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