¶ … Decision of Uncertainty
One of the important features of medicine is diagnostic testing. The companies that produce diagnostic tests are multi-billion dollar companies. Not only is the effectiveness of their tests important for their bottom line, but it is also important for the health and well-being of those who rely on the tests for their health. One such test important diagnostic test is the test for colorectal cancer known as the fecal occult blood test. When analyzing the effectiveness of such tests, we consider the sensitivity and the specificity of the test. In this case, the sensitivity of the test is the proportion of results that correctly identify people with colorectal cancer. In symbolic terms, P (testing positive | have colorectal cancer). The specificity is the proportion of tests that correctly identify those people who do not have colorectal cancer. Symbolically, it is P (testing negative | do not have colorectal cancer).
In reality, we are very interested in the probability having the disease given that you tested positive. That is, we are interested in the false alarm rate. This is important from a treatment perspective,...
Administrative model is defined as "a decision-making model that describes how managers actually make decisions in situations characterized by nonprogrammed decisions, uncertainty, and ambiguity" (Daft 1999, p. 284). This approach to decision-making recognizes that not all decisions are able to be considered and judged based on quantitative methods. While it may be preferred that decisions be made by a process where the outcomes are known and can be compared, it
Decisions in Paradise The many infrastructure and culturally-based challenges that Nik, his team and Mr. Morales face illustrate how challenging new business development can be in an island nation the size and location of Kava. What is immediately apparent from the case is that there is ample opportunity to enrich the island's economy and people while also building a strong, scalable business at the same time. Today however the island nation
A combination of techniques was used to evaluate, the most important being Bayes Theorem. Bayes Theorem "In its simplest algebraic form, Bayes' theorem is concerned with determining the conditional probability of event A given that event B. has occurred." (Kazmier, Staton & Fulks, 2003; p. 43). In this case, the event A is the increase in sales through the e-commerce site while event B. is the implementing of the decision to create
46). Likewise, Gillispie suggests that an incremental approach can be used to "test the waters" for even very small companies seeking to project an internationalized presence. In this regard, Gillespie recommends that companies, "Craft a scaleable master design that represents the major aspects of your business worldwide and anticipates the degree of localization that will be required in each market. The degree of localization can have a real impact
The recency effect: most manager at times have an overreliance on the most readily available information to make decisions, it commonly occurs when carrying out annual performance evaluations of employees where recent performance of the employees plays a major role than accomplishments that have taken place in the earlier periods of review, this has an adverse effect has it may lead to the deviation of the set desired goals. (John
Planning Decision Making Planning and decision making are two main and fundamental processes of an organization. Planning is one of the main factors with the help of which an organization can determine where it wants to be in the future. It is planning with the help of which an organization can determine as to what can be done in order to accomplish the mission and aims that an organization has. One
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