S. relationship since the presidential election, environmental matters will not take a back seat for long. The environment is an issue of long-standing import between the two nations. There are many areas where the interests of Canada and the United States converge. Acid rain is a long-standing issue, where pollution in the U.S. industrial belt contributes to the destruction of Canadian forests. Alaskan overfishing of BC salmon is another issue of the past.
The main issue today, however, is that of climate change.
The Chretien administration and the Bush administration went their separate ways with respect to climate change, exemplified by Canada's signing of the Kyoto Accord. Through this era, Canada viewed itself as a nation that needed to take a leadership role on the issue of climate change whereas the United States proceeded as though science was irrelevant. The Harper administration brought Canadian environmental philosophy, at least at the highest political level, closer to that of the Bush administration. Indeed, even under Chretien, environmental policy consisted of far more talk than action.
Today, the immediacy of the economic crisis has somewhat superceded climate change. As with border security, the two leaders say the right things with respect to climate change. While it may be too early to evaluate the Obama administration's stand on environmental issues and global warming, Harper has never been especially clear in his articulation of Canada's strategy or objectives with respect to climate change. The nation is a net exporter of fossil fuels, to the extent that the Canadian dollar is now considered by most economists to be a petrocurrency. This reality threatens to color Canada's views on climate change. The United States, as a major user of fossil fuels, has greater incentive to develop an economy for a post-fossil fuel future. In any case, there appears to be little traction for major initiatives with respect to this issue for either country in the near future, despite the fact that the issue is likely to guide the course of the 21st century.
Outlook: The Next Few Years
As with any relationship, that between Canada and the United States will be driven by a handful of key issues. Within the context of these issues, it is reasonable to expect that that nature of the relationship will depend on the degree of congruence between the objectives of the two nations. The more the two nations agree on the desired state to be achieved by a given strategy or tactic, the more the two nations will agree on what that strategy or tactic should be.
Canada and the United States have long had a close, cordial relationship. As a result, this relationship has remained almost exclusively positive. The unique nature of this relationship is such that the only real threat to the positive nature of the relationship is damaging unilateral action. We saw this during the Chretien-Bush years, where political leadership traded barbs and generally disagreed on a wide range of issues of mutual interest. The relationship began to strengthen when the Harper government came to power, in part due to certain congruencies in outlook between the nations' respective administrations.
It is generally considered that the Harper government had more in common with the Bush administration than it does with the Obama administration. This view, however, can be tempered by a solid analysis of the reality. The first important point is that the Harper government is a minority government. They require support from one of the other major parties in order to pass bills, and therefore they are unable to take a stance that is too far to the right. Canadians are generally centrist to center-left in their political orientation. It is beyond the scope of this analysis to speculate on the future of the Harper government, or on the potential impact of a potential Ignatieff administration on Canada-U.S. relations. But it has been demonstrated...
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