Verified Document

Business Cycles And Economic Outlook Essay

Thus, recession can be defined as a cure to the ill-policies of government and central bank that caused boom in certain sectors such as housing market. Because of that boom, easy credit policies, subsidies, easy lending and many other government and central bank caused factors, the prices soars to extreme high and causes inflation and money gets trapped in mal-investment. As the recession acts as a cure to this situation of extreme falsehood, it starts decreasing the extent of false demand and tries to bring the market to its actual true situation. The prices start declining and the economy starts recuperating from the illness of false heights.

Since recession itself is the cure of problems of mal-investment that were caused by the government and central bank's ill easy money and credit policies, it cannot be cured by further stimulus. The stimulus will only sustain the recession for longer periods until all the mal-investment is not neutralized and the economy comes in a situation to achieve sustainable growth (Cochran, 2001). The idea can also be substantiated with the expectations of Housing economists who expect that over the next 10 or 20 years, the prices in realty sector may start rising again on an average, but that rise won't be as much as the average rise was during the past decade (Hagerty, 2008).

Obviously, because of easy money and mislead credit policies caused a boom in housing market and created a false demand that consequently resulted in unsustainable boom. As a neutralizing phenomenon, the market forces caused liquidity crunch to cure the mal-investment. Until the mal-investment will not neutralize, market will not gain sustainable growth. Stimulus package can only delay the time for achieving the sustainable growth. The stimulus also failed to provide any help in improving the job market, the unemployment rate is still 9.7% in the month of May 2010 (Trading Economics, 2010), while it was 6.9% in 2008 (Strauss, 2009). Now with the problems of liquidity crunch still persisting, even the retirees are looking forward to find jobs (Greene, 2009). The situation shows that expensive stimulus may also push U.S. towards the same fate that the Greece government and public are suffering right now.

Robert Lucas supported the idea of Ben Bernanke to reduce the interest rates (Lucas, 2008)....

Every sane minded person will support the idea. In fact, the government or the central bank should not have the power to decide or dictate the interest rates. Interest rates should be decided by the free market proponents freely as per the time requires and permits. Yet, till how long will the central bank and government let the market enjoy the falsehood of stability on the basis of stimulus, what will happen when the central bank and Obama administration will look forward to take the stimulus back? Only then the market will again step forward towards curing the mal-investment caused by bad credit policies and only after that cure the market will be in a position to attain a sustainable growth.
References

Browning, E.S. (2009), "After the Collapse, Guarded Hope for '09," the Wall Street

Journal, January 2, Retrieved 22 June, 2010 from:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123084159289047143.html

Cochran, John P. (2001), "Austrian Business Cycles, Plucking Models, and Real

Business Cycles," Austrian Scholar Conference, Auburn, Alabama. Retrieved 22 June, 2010 from: http://mises.org/journals/scholar/Cochran.pdf

Greene, Kelly. (2009), "There Goes Retirement," the Wall Street Journal, March 1,

Retrieved 22 June, 2010 from:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123421515383065059.html

Hagerty, James R. (2008), "The Future of Home Prices," the Wall Street Journal,

December 2, Retrieved 22 June, 2010 from:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122764977315457619.html

Lucas, Robert E. (2008), "Bernanke is the Best Stimulus Right Now," the Wall Street

Journal, December 23, Retrieved 22 June, 2010 from:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122999959052129273.html

Strauss, W. a; E. Engel (2009), "Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2008

results and forecasts for 2009," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, August. Retrieved 22 June, 2010 from:

http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflfebruary2009_259.pdf

Trading Economics. (2010), "United States Unemployment Rate," May, Retrieved 22

June, 2010 from:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Unemployment-Rate.aspx?Symbol=USD

Sources used in this document:
References

Browning, E.S. (2009), "After the Collapse, Guarded Hope for '09," the Wall Street

Journal, January 2, Retrieved 22 June, 2010 from:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123084159289047143.html

Cochran, John P. (2001), "Austrian Business Cycles, Plucking Models, and Real
Business Cycles," Austrian Scholar Conference, Auburn, Alabama. Retrieved 22 June, 2010 from: http://mises.org/journals/scholar/Cochran.pdf
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123421515383065059.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122764977315457619.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122999959052129273.html
http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflfebruary2009_259.pdf
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Unemployment-Rate.aspx?Symbol=USD
Cite this Document:
Copy Bibliography Citation

Related Documents

Business Cycle Analysis Overview- From the End
Words: 1862 Length: 7 Document Type: Research Paper

Business Cycle Analysis Overview- From the end of World War II to the early 1970s, China was relatively isolated from the global landscape. It was a part of the Soviet Communist Bloc, but remained inwardly focused on improving its own infrastructure and economy, all the while poised for rapid modernization. Openness towards the West began around 1978 with increased trade, a small amount of additional transparency internally, and at least the

Economic Outlook Take Another Look
Words: 830 Length: 2 Document Type: Essay

Increases in manufacturing reveal benefits early, one can track the benefit at all stages and report the benefits to the public quickly. According to a statement released by the Center for American Progress, "solar panels don't install themselves. Wind turbines don't manufacture themselves. Homes and buildings don't retrofit or weatherize themselves. In our industrial society, trees don't even PLANT themselves, anymore. Real people must do all of that work."

Business Cycles: Phases, Indicators, Measures, Economic Evolution,...
Words: 1419 Length: 4 Document Type: Essay

Business Cycles: Phases, Indicators, Measures, Economic Evolution, Outlooks is currently recovering from its worst recession in over 25 years. Most economists consider the rapid rise in housing prices (the bubble) and the subsequent collapse in that market to be the primary cause of the recession. Explain what housing market circumstances were responsible for the collapse of that market. Observers attribute the 2001-2006 housing bubble to "everyone from home buyers to Wall Street,

Business Cycles and Economic Outlook
Words: 499 Length: 1 Document Type: Term Paper

However, it is also necessary that everyone have a clear idea and common vision of why the party is being planned, and what is being celebrated. At the next meeting, some of the people who were at the company for a long time can talk about their involvement with the company like the 'rough times' they experienced early on during the organization's early years. The individuals with the most

Economic Outlook of the US Economy
Words: 3696 Length: 5 Document Type: Term Paper

Summary Economic forecasting refers to the process of trying to predict the future state of the economy through a series of different indicators. This process helps to understand the probable future of a nation’s economy and for policymaking to help promote economic growth. When developing an economic forecast, various macroeconomic factors/conditions are taken into consideration. This paper provides an economic forecast of the U.S. economy based on recent economic indicators in

USA Business Cycle This Report Will Focus
Words: 2609 Length: 8 Document Type: Research Paper

USA Business Cycle This report will focus on the business cycle of a country of the author's choice, that being the United States of America. The author chose that country because it is one of the most scrutinized and analyzed countries in the world and the data for it is readily available. More than a dozen metrics will be looked at for this report. In order, they will be real gross

Sign Up for Unlimited Study Help

Our semester plans gives you unlimited, unrestricted access to our entire library of resources —writing tools, guides, example essays, tutorials, class notes, and more.

Get Started Now