Forecasting: Kentucky Swamp Brew
Forecasting demand within the brewing industry is dependent upon three basic factors: "trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns" (Elfner n.d.). Trends are defined as gradual shifts in demand that permanently affect the demand for the good or service; cycles are repetitious shifts in demand that manifest themselves in cyclical and predictable patters; and seasonal shifts are changes that occur periodically (Elfner n.d.). For example, a trend for Kentucky Swamp Brew might be an upsurge of interest in craft, small batch brewing. A cycle might be a gradual upsurge of demand with an increase in the health of the economy; a seasonal pattern might be a shift from preferring darker or heavier brews in the winter to lighter brews in the summer.
Trends are likely more difficult to forecast because they can be more unpredictable. Watching industry patterns, using managerial judgment, opinion, past experiences, and instinct are all common qualitative methods...
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