Introduction
Background
In spite of the fact that its entire effects will not be acknowledged and well-known for numerous years, the 2007 – 2008 financial crisis is already deemed as one of the major financial problems in history. There is an overall covenant that trust and confidence played significant roles in the financial crisis and are pivotal to any efficacious plan for proper recovery. Akin to all preceding financial crisis, at the source of the problem lies a loss of confidence by investors and the general public in the strength of key financial establishments and markets (Earle, 2009). The reason for this study is that confidence plays a large role in how money is invested, where it is placed, and what markets will do. Everything from bonds to equities to precious metals and even blockchain is impacted by confidence. Banks must have some sense of their confidence levels should another economic crisis hit. If confidence is low, knowing that can give banks an opportunity to de-leverage and reduce risk in order to better survive an economic crisis.
Statement of the Problem
There are two key points that prompted this research study. First, Senior Global Economist Joseph Lupton (2018) at J.P. Morgan pointed out that global sovereign debt has blown up by 26 percentage points of the gross domestic product (GDP) since 2007. Secondly, J. P. Morgan Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon (2017) noted that bearing in mind that quantitative easing has never been done on this magnitude and we do not entirely know the myriad effects it has had on asset prices, confidence, capital expenditures and other factors, we are unable to completely know the effects of its reversal. In this regard, the major issue facing the international banking industry, with debt levels so high and rates rising, is whether bankers are any better positioned to withstand a similar or worse crisis than that of 2007-2009.
There is a significant need to address this problem as the Great Recession continues to be fresh in the minds of many and the likelihood of another, even more severe recession looming (Mauldin, 2018). Gaining an understanding of confidence and position of international banks can play a key role in developing a sense whether defaults in one region of the world, for instance, the United States, China or Italy, will have an influence on the banking industry as a whole (Bouvatier and Delatte, 2015) and whether there is need for taking precautions at the moment. In the preceding financial crisis of 2007 – 2009, individual banks necessitated bailouts from central banking establishments owing to the reason that they lacked preparation for failure and the failure of some could have resulted in failures across the board (Bruno and Shin, 2005). At the present moment, it is not well known whether international banks are in a better position to endure a similar or even worse financial crisis. Despite the fact that stress tests are undertaken regularly, these do not always unveil the actual magnitude to which a crisis could influence the industry.
Purpose of the Study
The purpose of this quantitative study is to assess the confidence levels of members of the international banking community with respect to the sector’s ability to weather another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009 following the collapse of sub-prime in the U.S. and the tidal wave of defaults across the global banking sector which only found relief through central banking intervention (Haitsma, Unalmis & de Haan, 2016; Heller, 2017). The goal of the research is to better understand the extent to which the international banking sector is prepared for another possible global economic crisis. To understand the industry’s confidence, it is helpful to address the community directly and obtain from the horse’s mouth, so to speak, how vulnerable real life bankers feel in 2018, what with a trade war between the U.S. and China possibly turning into a hot war, numerous countries around the world audibly voicing their desire to begin getting away from the USD as a result of too many economic sanctions flowing out of Washington in recent years, and the Federal Reserve intent on initiating quantitative tightening.
Thus, the intent of this study is to assess the confidence of members of the international banking community with regard to whether the sector can safely handle another global economic crisis like that seen in 2007-2009 and whether geo-political awareness impacts that confidence level.
Need for the Study
The reason for this study is that confidence plays a large role in how money is invested, where it is placed, and what markets will do. Everything from bonds to equities to precious metals and even blockchain is impacted by confidence. Banks must have some sense of their confidence...
References
Bouvatier, V., & Delatte, A. L. (2015). Waves of international banking integration: A tale of regional differences. European Economic Review, 80, 354-373.
Bruno, V., & Shin, H. S. (2015). Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 71, 119-132.
Dimon, J. (2017). Letter to shareholders. Retrieved from: https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2017/ar-ceo-letters.htm
Earle, T. C. (2009). Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 29(6), 785-792.
Earle, T. C., & Siegrist, M. (2006). Morality Information, Performance Information, and the Distinction Between Trust and Confidence 1. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 36(2), 383-416.
Earle, T. C., Siegrist, M., & Gutscher, H. (2010). Trust, risk perception and the TCC model of cooperation. Trust in risk management: Uncertainty and scepticism in the public mind, 1-50.
Golafshani, N. (2003). Understanding reliability and validity in qualitative research. The Qualitative Report, 8(4), 597–606.
Haitsma, R., Unalmis, D., & de Haan, J. (2015). The impact of the ECB's conventional and unconventional monetary policies on stock markets. Journal of Macroeconomics, 48, 101-116.
Lupton, J. (2018). 10 years after the financial crisis. Retrieved from : https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/10-years-after-crisis
Mauldin, J. (2018). The next recession might be worse than the Great Depression. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/03/20/the-next-recession-might-be-worse-than-the-great-depression/#6df9e2469b97
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