CPR Model and Bullwhip Effect
CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Replenishment, and Forecasting) is a growingly applied business practice aiming to lower supply chain spending through the promotion of increased cooperation, integration, and visibility between supply chains of trading partners. The phrase "trading partner" is applicable to nearly all combinations (inter, as well as intra) of manufacturers, suppliers, retailers, or distributors. CPFR itself represents an extension of older collaboration efforts such as just-in-time (JIT) (Andrews, 2008). CPFR defines a broad framework including the components of planning, strategizing, supply and demand management, implementation, and appraisal. The strategizing and planning phase includes developing joint business strategies and collaboration terms. Supply and demand management concentrates on order planning and forecasting. Implementation entails generating and meeting replenishment orders. Lastly, appraisal deals with score carding and exception management processes (Andrews, 2008).
Bullwhip Effect
A firm that wishes to last in the current competitive environment must develop strong supply chains capable of responding rapidly to consumer requirements. Meanwhile, supply chains today are vulnerable to uncertainties that have negative ripple effects when going upstream in a supply chain. Availability of data pertaining to inventory levels, demand, lead times, price, etc. can help reduce uncertainties in supply chains. Furthermore, such access can help alleviate bullwhip effect-related issues. The aforementioned 'bullwhip effect' refers to a phenomenon wherein order sequence variations increase for suppliers (positioned farthest from end customers). Industry observations like simulated experiments (e.g., Beer Game) and macroeconomic data have depicted enormous added supply chain expenses owing to bullwhip (Kazemi & Zhang, 2013).
Mitigation
Bullwhip effect can be mitigated by information sharing, as it introduces a measure of transparency and coordination across the supply chain and allows facilitate efficient allocation of inventories across different stages of the supply chain. Literature cites a wide range of information sharing benefits, which are...
The distributor would as such be able to identify the new needs of the customers and the suppliers, and will be able to serve them in quick and efficient manner, by delivering results before the competition even becomes aware of the existence of the changes incurred. In other words, competitive advantages would be created (Royer, 2005). Within the longer term, a suggestion is made in the combination of qualitative
Forecasting Indices The following figure is taken from sales data of sporting goods, graphed over the last four years, showing worldwide demand for wave and ski boards combined. Each line on the graphic shows combined sales of wave and ski boards. The significant ramp in sales throughout March and April are attributable to the launch of each seasons' new wave boards. The spoke in sales in October are attributable to ski
The information is then collected and summarized and presented to the experts. The experts can then reconsider their answers and adjust them. This process can continue as required, with the intention being for a general consensus to emerge. The purpose of the technique is to utilize a range of experts, but in a way where each gives their opinion independently. The main difference between this method and other forecasting
Forecasting Operations Management Managers Module 3 - SLP Forecasting Consider organization selected previous SLP papers. Integrate concepts operations management principles 've studying module turn page paper addressing questions (remember references): 1) How forecasting carried organization ( level discussing)? 2) How relate product development services offers? 3) What difficulties organization faces coming accurate forecasts? Could improve forecasts methods? SLP Assignment Expectations: Research organization information find internet resources find . Forecasting: Wal-Mart Q1, How is
Forecasting The type of forecasting that should be in place at an insurance company is time series analysis, as it is through this approach to forecasting that prior demands are used to predict future demands (Chase et al. 2005). At the particular insurance corporation in question, this is precisely the type of forecasting that is in place; the number of claims expected in a given period of time is based on
Forecasting Methods There are three basic forecasting methods namely the time series methods, the regression methods, and qualitative methods. Qualitative methods use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts. These methods are most commonly used in long-term strategic planning process bearing in mind there are individuals within an organization whose judgment and opinion are very integral in the running of search organizations (Brown, 1959). In fact their opinions count more
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